<![CDATA[so #russia strikes #romania]]>so strikes

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260529-russian-drone-hits-apartment-building-in-romania-near-ukraine-border

why?

the person making the decision is in a tight spot. can't win in . even if he mass mobilized it would not make a difference. so, from a political calculation point of view, it's lay back and accept his coming removal, or...

escalate

how does ecalation help?

1/x

]]>https://forum.fedi.dk/topic/7917fce6-f1cd-4d1f-b4a5-1ec61262f698/so-russia-strikes-romaniaRSS for NodeWed, 10 Jun 2026 13:23:51 GMTTue, 02 Jun 2026 04:36:19 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to so #russia strikes #romania on Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:03:56 GMT]]>escalation make sense for no one. except putin. the root of the entire tragedy

and there is an unfortunate political knock-on effect for romania, moldova, and europe at large, that also works for putin

7/x

]]>https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678763258120721https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678763258120721Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:03:56 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to so #russia strikes #romania on Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:01:31 GMT]]>and so he *wants* a fight with NATO. a ladder of chaos to save his vile ass: he will endlessly escalate in (im)plausibly deniable ways, forever. anything NATO does in response is something to sell to the average russian- "see? NATO always wanted this! we must defend russia" as a distraction from the reality that the war is stupid and putin is the real problem and the real culprit

6/x

]]>https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678753722692663https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678753722692663Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:01:31 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to so #russia strikes #romania on Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:57:07 GMT]]>because the goal for putin is not winning in ukraine so much as it is keeping himself in power, now. he will drag this stupid war out for the rest of his natural life if he has to. he will sacrifice millions of russian lives, nevermind ukrainian lives, if he has to. he doesn't care. it's all to forestall his inevitable fate. as soon as the ukraine war is over, he's toast. he knows it

5/x

]]>https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678736471766398https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678736471766398Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:57:07 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to so #russia strikes #romania on Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:46:42 GMT]]>even if the attack is manufactured, provoked, by the leader of your own society, it doesn't matter (as long as the provocation is shadowy, such as "we lost our drone in romania, so sorry"). even if the attack isn't real, but just anticipation and fear fed through propaganda, it doesn't matter

but, as i said, putin still will not win. and so?

4/x

]]>https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678695469661461https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678695469661461Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:46:42 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to so #russia strikes #romania on Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:44:32 GMT]]>anyways, on escalation:

there's a classic effect, in any society, in any time, where when the country is under attack, the citizens rally around the leader

even if many people see through the charade, it doesn't matter. enough in society don't see it, and enough propaganda is put on full blast, it changes the political and social costs of mass mobilization, or continuing a losing war, or propping up faith in a dying economy, etc

3/x

]]>https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678686972678401https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678686972678401Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:44:32 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to so #russia strikes #romania on Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:39:48 GMT]]>before i get into it, i should note:

if you click the article above, the title is "Russia accused of launching drone that hit apartment block in Romania, but Putin demands proof"

so russia didn't do it?

but then:

"Russian official warns Europe to brace for more drone incidents after Romania episode"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-official-warns-europe-brace-more-drone-incidents-after-romania-episode-2026-05-29

so just some classic abuser gaslighting shit

"i didn't hit you. but i'll hit you again if you say so"

2/x

]]>https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678668345798960https://forum.fedi.dk/post/https://mastodon.social/users/benroyce/statuses/116678668345798960Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:39:48 GMT