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  3. #Crime is a perennial problem.

#Crime is a perennial problem.

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  • mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
    mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
    mrundkvist@archaeo.social
    wrote sidst redigeret af
    #1

    #Crime is a perennial problem. A lot of blame is being laid on groups in society. But there's one number you never see in these discussions.

    What percentage of everyone is a criminal?

    It's a single-digit percentage. Grab 100 random people in Sweden: 3 of them are criminals.

    But there are in fact groups that have a higher percentage, though still low. Here are some more highly correlated factors.

    * Poor
    * Young
    * Men
    * With short education

    ifrit@masto.aiI mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ craignicol@glasgow.socialC 4 Replies Last reply
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    • mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM mrundkvist@archaeo.social

      #Crime is a perennial problem. A lot of blame is being laid on groups in society. But there's one number you never see in these discussions.

      What percentage of everyone is a criminal?

      It's a single-digit percentage. Grab 100 random people in Sweden: 3 of them are criminals.

      But there are in fact groups that have a higher percentage, though still low. Here are some more highly correlated factors.

      * Poor
      * Young
      * Men
      * With short education

      ifrit@masto.aiI This user is from outside of this forum
      ifrit@masto.aiI This user is from outside of this forum
      ifrit@masto.ai
      wrote sidst redigeret af
      #2

      @mrundkvist
      This can change if you redefine crime and ask to how many people affect it...

      The result could be:
      * Rich
      * Old
      * Men
      * With high education

      🤔

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      • mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM mrundkvist@archaeo.social

        #Crime is a perennial problem. A lot of blame is being laid on groups in society. But there's one number you never see in these discussions.

        What percentage of everyone is a criminal?

        It's a single-digit percentage. Grab 100 random people in Sweden: 3 of them are criminals.

        But there are in fact groups that have a higher percentage, though still low. Here are some more highly correlated factors.

        * Poor
        * Young
        * Men
        * With short education

        mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
        mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
        mrundkvist@archaeo.social
        wrote sidst redigeret af
        #3

        The parameter "immigrant" is fairly useless for crime prediction. This is because lots of immigrants are

        * Not poor
        * Not young
        * Women & girls
        * With education

        So if someone blames #crime on immigrants, they need to explain why wealthy old lady dentists are not included in their concept of the immigrant.

        #immigration

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        • mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM mrundkvist@archaeo.social

          #Crime is a perennial problem. A lot of blame is being laid on groups in society. But there's one number you never see in these discussions.

          What percentage of everyone is a criminal?

          It's a single-digit percentage. Grab 100 random people in Sweden: 3 of them are criminals.

          But there are in fact groups that have a higher percentage, though still low. Here are some more highly correlated factors.

          * Poor
          * Young
          * Men
          * With short education

          jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ This user is from outside of this forum
          jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ This user is from outside of this forum
          jbenjamint@mastodon.scot
          wrote sidst redigeret af
          #4

          @mrundkvist in the UK it's slightly more than 1 in 5 people that have a criminal record of some kind....

          jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM 2 Replies Last reply
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          • jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ jbenjamint@mastodon.scot

            @mrundkvist in the UK it's slightly more than 1 in 5 people that have a criminal record of some kind....

            jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ This user is from outside of this forum
            jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ This user is from outside of this forum
            jbenjamint@mastodon.scot
            wrote sidst redigeret af
            #5

            Here's the source for the UK. Would be surprised if the number of people in Sweden who have had a criminal record at some point in their lives is really as low as 3% - suspect it is far far higher!!

            https://unlock.org.uk/policy-issues/key-facts/

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            • jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ jbenjamint@mastodon.scot

              @mrundkvist in the UK it's slightly more than 1 in 5 people that have a criminal record of some kind....

              mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
              mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
              mrundkvist@archaeo.social
              wrote sidst redigeret af
              #6

              @jbenjamint Cool, this means that in the UK too there is no group that is more criminal than not.

              jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ 1 Reply Last reply
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              • mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM mrundkvist@archaeo.social

                @jbenjamint Cool, this means that in the UK too there is no group that is more criminal than not.

                jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ This user is from outside of this forum
                jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ This user is from outside of this forum
                jbenjamint@mastodon.scot
                wrote sidst redigeret af
                #7

                @mrundkvist quite, although men are roughly 3x more likely than women to have a record.

                mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM 1 Reply Last reply
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                • jbenjamint@mastodon.scotJ jbenjamint@mastodon.scot

                  @mrundkvist quite, although men are roughly 3x more likely than women to have a record.

                  mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
                  mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
                  mrundkvist@archaeo.social
                  wrote sidst redigeret af
                  #8

                  @jbenjamint
                  Indeed. See discussion above.

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                  • mrundkvist@archaeo.socialM mrundkvist@archaeo.social

                    #Crime is a perennial problem. A lot of blame is being laid on groups in society. But there's one number you never see in these discussions.

                    What percentage of everyone is a criminal?

                    It's a single-digit percentage. Grab 100 random people in Sweden: 3 of them are criminals.

                    But there are in fact groups that have a higher percentage, though still low. Here are some more highly correlated factors.

                    * Poor
                    * Young
                    * Men
                    * With short education

                    craignicol@glasgow.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                    craignicol@glasgow.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                    craignicol@glasgow.social
                    wrote sidst redigeret af
                    #9

                    @mrundkvist depends on how you define criminal though. I'm sure poor people are underrepresented in fraud and tax evasion, and I also know those are less likely to be investigated (in the UK definitely, but I'm sure elsewhere too).

                    See also high profile cases of rich rapists and paedophiles who never face justice whilst alive because they have power.

                    1 Reply Last reply
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