Time for 2026 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread, now with storage.
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21. The Hormuz crisis is having relatively little direct effect on solar panel sales, because solar doesn’t usually replace liquid fuel. The crisis is boosting EV sales, particularly in Europe where they reached 36% of car sales in Q2 2026 (China’s figure was 60%, though the car market overall slowed down). This does eventually support solar.
22. It should be all over for the new internal combustion engine car market. The only reason it doesn’t seem to be is that a lot of people don’t seem to realise how times have changed, and still repeat old talking points.
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22. It should be all over for the new internal combustion engine car market. The only reason it doesn’t seem to be is that a lot of people don’t seem to realise how times have changed, and still repeat old talking points.
23. Balcony solar: sure, you can put solar on anything. It works at any scale. But the amounts are tiny - this is not really an alternative to building large amounts of rooftop or ground mount solar.
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23. Balcony solar: sure, you can put solar on anything. It works at any scale. But the amounts are tiny - this is not really an alternative to building large amounts of rooftop or ground mount solar.
24. “But you can own your own power plant!”.
No normal person wants to own their own power plant. Apart from us weirdoes, most people want to buy affordable, reliable power from the grid and have someone else make the investment and worry about the details.
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24. “But you can own your own power plant!”.
No normal person wants to own their own power plant. Apart from us weirdoes, most people want to buy affordable, reliable power from the grid and have someone else make the investment and worry about the details.
25. Agrivoltaics: sure, you can put solar on anything. It may even help, eg in this blistering summer a bit of shade would have helped many European crops. But it’s looking for preferential support, because there are reasons farmers currently prefer open, machine-accessible fields.
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25. Agrivoltaics: sure, you can put solar on anything. It may even help, eg in this blistering summer a bit of shade would have helped many European crops. But it’s looking for preferential support, because there are reasons farmers currently prefer open, machine-accessible fields.
26. Grazing sheep under solar panels should not qualify for agrivoltaics support. Solar subsidising sheep farming is not particularly an environmental plus. (Some crops do work well with PV, for example shade-tolerant berries, and in some climates, growth isn't limited by light availability).
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26. Grazing sheep under solar panels should not qualify for agrivoltaics support. Solar subsidising sheep farming is not particularly an environmental plus. (Some crops do work well with PV, for example shade-tolerant berries, and in some climates, growth isn't limited by light availability).
27. For 7 years I have been refusing to get excited about perovskites. Still not. Crystalline silicon is honestly pretty great, and perovskites won’t solve the basic problems for solar, which are unrelated to efficiency or price.
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27. For 7 years I have been refusing to get excited about perovskites. Still not. Crystalline silicon is honestly pretty great, and perovskites won’t solve the basic problems for solar, which are unrelated to efficiency or price.
28. The US and India are locked into having high-price local solar module markets, due to trade wars.
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28. The US and India are locked into having high-price local solar module markets, due to trade wars.
29. As a consequence of trade barriers, US solar module buyers are now paying more than 38 US cents per Watt, for generally worse products than free trade markets are getting for 12 US cents per Watt.
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29. As a consequence of trade barriers, US solar module buyers are now paying more than 38 US cents per Watt, for generally worse products than free trade markets are getting for 12 US cents per Watt.
30. The rest of us, if we want to be less dependent on China for solar modules, should buy from southeast Asia, India or Turkey, which will be happy to sell them at much less cost than setting up a domestic industry.
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30. The rest of us, if we want to be less dependent on China for solar modules, should buy from southeast Asia, India or Turkey, which will be happy to sell them at much less cost than setting up a domestic industry.
31. The US whack-a-mole approach to tariffs on new solar supply countries has resulted in cell and module factories built in a hurry in Africa, almost on a temporary basis because everyone knows the tariffs will hit them next.
This is not good for developing a skilled workforce or rigorous quality control.
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31. The US whack-a-mole approach to tariffs on new solar supply countries has resulted in cell and module factories built in a hurry in Africa, almost on a temporary basis because everyone knows the tariffs will hit them next.
This is not good for developing a skilled workforce or rigorous quality control.
32. A few interesting bellwether markets! Bulgaria, with 2025 peak power demand of 7.4GW, already has 4GW of batteries and a further 2-4GW in the pipeline, for 16GWh total. It is well connected with neighbouring grids and may become a short-term balancing hub.
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32. A few interesting bellwether markets! Bulgaria, with 2025 peak power demand of 7.4GW, already has 4GW of batteries and a further 2-4GW in the pipeline, for 16GWh total. It is well connected with neighbouring grids and may become a short-term balancing hub.
33. Pakistan: ~25% of generation comes from solar, mostly small user-owned systems. It has grown due to rising power prices, distrust of utilities, landlords who see the benefits and provide PV to tenants as patronage, and really good how-to Tiktoks in local languages.
This has stabilised and even reduced demand for gas and grid power, which puts new stresses on utilities and the government, which is responsible for capacity payments to China-owned coal plants. I do not know what happens next.
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33. Pakistan: ~25% of generation comes from solar, mostly small user-owned systems. It has grown due to rising power prices, distrust of utilities, landlords who see the benefits and provide PV to tenants as patronage, and really good how-to Tiktoks in local languages.
This has stabilised and even reduced demand for gas and grid power, which puts new stresses on utilities and the government, which is responsible for capacity payments to China-owned coal plants. I do not know what happens next.
34. Demand for solar panels to sub-Saharan Africa is rising; it was the destination for 9.4 gigawatts (GW) of Chinese module exports in the first half of 2026, compared with 13.1GW in the whole of 2025. South Africa, Nigeria, Congo, Ghana and Kenya are the largest markets.
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34. Demand for solar panels to sub-Saharan Africa is rising; it was the destination for 9.4 gigawatts (GW) of Chinese module exports in the first half of 2026, compared with 13.1GW in the whole of 2025. South Africa, Nigeria, Congo, Ghana and Kenya are the largest markets.
35. The Philippines is having an amazing boom – we estimate that it will build 5.6GW of new solar in 2026, compared with 1GW last year. Plus 2.7GWh of batteries in 2026. Maybe the first market where the solar boom comes with batteries from the start.
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35. The Philippines is having an amazing boom – we estimate that it will build 5.6GW of new solar in 2026, compared with 1GW last year. Plus 2.7GWh of batteries in 2026. Maybe the first market where the solar boom comes with batteries from the start.
36. Solar long ago stopped being only for rich countries, and now batteries are the same.
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36. Solar long ago stopped being only for rich countries, and now batteries are the same.
37. Nonetheless, it will be very difficult to reach net zero emissions, and getting rid of the last 10% of fossil fuel will be the hardest. Gas turbine orders hit a record 67GW worldwide in 1H 2026 (paywall).
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37. Nonetheless, it will be very difficult to reach net zero emissions, and getting rid of the last 10% of fossil fuel will be the hardest. Gas turbine orders hit a record 67GW worldwide in 1H 2026 (paywall).
38. Many of these turbines will run at lower capacity factors than historical gas turbines, and the best sort of fossil fuel plant is one that runs only occasionally. It is possible to have higher fossil capacity but much lower fuel burn, and indeed this makes a lot of economic sense.
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38. Many of these turbines will run at lower capacity factors than historical gas turbines, and the best sort of fossil fuel plant is one that runs only occasionally. It is possible to have higher fossil capacity but much lower fuel burn, and indeed this makes a lot of economic sense.
39. Even our Net Zero Scenario modelling, to my despair, relies a lot on carbon capture and storage from a residual fragment of gas generation. Net zero is just very hard, but working towards it is better than not working!
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39. Even our Net Zero Scenario modelling, to my despair, relies a lot on carbon capture and storage from a residual fragment of gas generation. Net zero is just very hard, but working towards it is better than not working!
40. Decarbonization offers financial savings as well as costs. Even our Economic Transition Scenario, a base case where change is driven by cost analysis and existing policy, has energy import dependence falling substantially for many countries by 2035. No paywall:
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40. Decarbonization offers financial savings as well as costs. Even our Economic Transition Scenario, a base case where change is driven by cost analysis and existing policy, has energy import dependence falling substantially for many countries by 2035. No paywall:
41. Achieving a low-carbon transition, for most countries, will not look like winning a war or marching while waving flags. It is the ability to say "no thank you, we do not want what you are selling" to the petrostates, and walking (or cycling, or taking a bus, or driving an EV) away.
(The End, for now).
