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  3. This is FASCINATING.

This is FASCINATING.

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  • paul_ipv6@infosec.exchangeP paul_ipv6@infosec.exchange

    @mattblaze @hzulla

    yup. there is a point at which "expected" or "normal" traffic is a self DDoS if you do enough of it at once.

    i always found it useful when planning capacity to take the "expected" and ask "what happens if i add two zeros to that amount".

    stevebellovin@infosec.exchangeS This user is from outside of this forum
    stevebellovin@infosec.exchangeS This user is from outside of this forum
    stevebellovin@infosec.exchange
    wrote sidst redigeret af
    #106

    @paul_ipv6 @mattblaze @hzulla My original load projection for Netnews, back when we were designing it in late 1979, as “1–2 messages a day, from 50-100 computers, mostly about Unix system internals”… I was off by far more than two orders of magnitude, of course, which is why I never went in for traffic forecasting.

    paul_ipv6@infosec.exchangeP drwho@masto.hackers.townD 2 Replies Last reply
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    • stevebellovin@infosec.exchangeS stevebellovin@infosec.exchange

      @paul_ipv6 @mattblaze @hzulla My original load projection for Netnews, back when we were designing it in late 1979, as “1–2 messages a day, from 50-100 computers, mostly about Unix system internals”… I was off by far more than two orders of magnitude, of course, which is why I never went in for traffic forecasting.

      paul_ipv6@infosec.exchangeP This user is from outside of this forum
      paul_ipv6@infosec.exchangeP This user is from outside of this forum
      paul_ipv6@infosec.exchange
      wrote sidst redigeret af
      #107

      @SteveBellovin @mattblaze @hzulla

      i have memories of hard coding a max number of newsgroups of 1024? another vast under-estimation.

      when an ISP i worked at hit 1 trillion recursive DNS queries a day, i was appalled.

      1 Reply Last reply
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      • mattblaze@federate.socialM mattblaze@federate.social

        @SteveBellovin @hzulla Yeah, but back then, you mostly only had to worry about conflicts on the same machine.

        stevesyfuhs@hachyderm.ioS This user is from outside of this forum
        stevesyfuhs@hachyderm.ioS This user is from outside of this forum
        stevesyfuhs@hachyderm.io
        wrote sidst redigeret af
        #108

        @mattblaze @SteveBellovin @hzulla we, Windows, see measurable megawatt changes when we do good or bad on perf across the datacenters. It's fascinating to get a report back saying we reduced a megawatt of usage by changing a poll from say one minute to five. Also update reboots. 🥴

        1 Reply Last reply
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        • stevebellovin@infosec.exchangeS stevebellovin@infosec.exchange

          @mattblaze @hzulla Even way back when, I generally offset my cron jobs by a few minutes, just to avoid CPU and RAM (“core storage”) conflicts with other cron jobs.

          mrgtwentythree@mastodon.sdf.orgM This user is from outside of this forum
          mrgtwentythree@mastodon.sdf.orgM This user is from outside of this forum
          mrgtwentythree@mastodon.sdf.org
          wrote sidst redigeret af
          #109

          @SteveBellovin @mattblaze @hzulla vixie cron has random and offset features, which can help some ...

          1 Reply Last reply
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          • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

            This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

            https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

            teajaygrey@snac.bsd.cafeT This user is from outside of this forum
            teajaygrey@snac.bsd.cafeT This user is from outside of this forum
            teajaygrey@snac.bsd.cafe
            wrote sidst redigeret af
            #110
            Vixie cron has had -j (for jitter) for helpful offsets for a very long time now (e.g. https://man.freebsd.org/cgi/man.cgi?query=cron&sektion=8&apropos=0&manpath=FreeBSD+11.0-RELEASE+and+Ports)

            Todd Miller also introduced some similar functionality to OpenBSD's cron in 2023 (e.g. https://undeadly.org/cgi?action=article;sid=20230507122935)

            Such things were typically inspired to avoid "hammering" (a different sort of spike nomenclature typically related to bandwidth and computational resource utilization) at specific intervals, yet logically they can also potentially alleviate power grid knock on effects as well.

            I'm less certain about Linux distros' cron functionality providing similar things? Though maybe via packages a different cron can be installed with the requisite parameters for ameliorative adjustments if whatever distros' own cron is deficient in such realms?
            1 Reply Last reply
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            • stevebellovin@infosec.exchangeS stevebellovin@infosec.exchange

              @mattblaze @hzulla Even way back when, I generally offset my cron jobs by a few minutes, just to avoid CPU and RAM (“core storage”) conflicts with other cron jobs.

              20002ist@thepit.social2 This user is from outside of this forum
              20002ist@thepit.social2 This user is from outside of this forum
              20002ist@thepit.social
              wrote sidst redigeret af
              #111

              @SteveBellovin @mattblaze @hzulla brb writing a horror novel called “Children of the Cron.”

              drwho@masto.hackers.townD itgrrl@infosec.exchangeI 2 Replies Last reply
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              • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                slash909uk@mastodon.me.ukS This user is from outside of this forum
                slash909uk@mastodon.me.ukS This user is from outside of this forum
                slash909uk@mastodon.me.uk
                wrote sidst redigeret af
                #112

                @hzulla adding another data point here; when I worked in satellite set top box land we used a hash of the device MAC address to offset the viewing card callback, precisely to avoid the load spikes on the head end infrastructure.. multiple million STBs connected to phone lines can create quite the attack vector 🤪.

                Making it predictable on the same box helps the support desk to know when each customers device should update... no need for randomness, just distribution.

                1 Reply Last reply
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                • paul_ipv6@infosec.exchangeP paul_ipv6@infosec.exchange

                  @hzulla

                  we keep unlearning this.

                  when i worked at a large cable company doing DNS, we noticed a huge query spike every 15 minutes starting on the hour. the spikes were well above the normal running DNS load.

                  turned out, the set top boxes checked internet working by every one of them all doing the same query in cron at 0/15/30/45...

                  i dropped our entired DNS infrastructure peak load requirements by just getting them to add a random sleep interval after 0/15/30/45 to even out the query load...

                  synlogic4242@social.vivaldi.netS This user is from outside of this forum
                  synlogic4242@social.vivaldi.netS This user is from outside of this forum
                  synlogic4242@social.vivaldi.net
                  wrote sidst redigeret af
                  #113

                  @paul_ipv6 @hzulla I have a WIP book about computer performance optimization at extreme scale, and this issue/technique was already noted in my own outline for it. I sometimes do professional audits of perf/scale optimization or troubleshooting of client's legacy systems, and this is one of the phenom on my own checklist to look for too

                  1 Reply Last reply
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                  • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                    This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                    https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                    lanodan@queer.hacktivis.meL This user is from outside of this forum
                    lanodan@queer.hacktivis.meL This user is from outside of this forum
                    lanodan@queer.hacktivis.me
                    wrote sidst redigeret af
                    #114
                    @hzulla Oh wow, I now even more love how most of my timers are based on elapsed time (monotonic or realtime).
                    1 Reply Last reply
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                    • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                      This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                      https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                      puercomal@sfba.socialP This user is from outside of this forum
                      puercomal@sfba.socialP This user is from outside of this forum
                      puercomal@sfba.social
                      wrote sidst redigeret af
                      #115

                      @hzulla having been product manager for more than one job scheduling system, this is not surprising at all 🙂 more details here http://monkeynoodle.org/2024/01/06/task-scheduling-and-slippage/

                      1 Reply Last reply
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                      • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                        This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                        https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                        lunarloony@dosgame.clubL This user is from outside of this forum
                        lunarloony@dosgame.clubL This user is from outside of this forum
                        lunarloony@dosgame.club
                        wrote sidst redigeret af
                        #116

                        @hzulla Huh, is this why Windows' task scheduler has a "delay for a random amount of time" function?

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                        • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                          This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                          https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                          synec@messydesk.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                          synec@messydesk.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                          synec@messydesk.social
                          wrote sidst redigeret af
                          #117

                          @hzulla Twitter went through the same thing 10+ years ago in its data centers with exactly the same solution.

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                          • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                            This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                            https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                            O This user is from outside of this forum
                            O This user is from outside of this forum
                            oregon_slim@c.im
                            wrote sidst redigeret af
                            #118

                            @hzulla

                            Abolish UTC. (I assume that the new rule about leap seconds has already eliminated the NIST's Earth Rotation Service.) If we had free market time, time would be like falafel on the boardwalk. The competing time vendors would be continuously repositioning themselves so that their customers would get better power and more efficient operations than everyone else. And a market in information about what time the different time servers were giving out would suddenly appear. And the different time servers would buy advertising from the people who sold the information about whose time was best, increasing the GDP. And casinos can start making book on which time was going to be when, high-speed traders can start arbitraging futures based on the time differences between different time servers. Let 100 flowers blossom!

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                            • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                              It is such an obvious cause once you think about it, and yet before you hear about this, no software developer or maintainer ever considers the possible effects of e.g. a default Debian cron job setting on the global electricity grid.

                              3geek14@kind.social3 This user is from outside of this forum
                              3geek14@kind.social3 This user is from outside of this forum
                              3geek14@kind.social
                              wrote sidst redigeret af
                              #119

                              @hzulla when I worked at evil mega corp, the easiest way to schedule a job would add a random offset, for network health reasons. Perhaps the corp didn't consider the global power grid, as it wasn't directly within their control and monitoring, but they reached the same conclusion about what details to set.

                              1 Reply Last reply
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                              • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                                This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                                https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                                eckes@zusammenkunft.netE This user is from outside of this forum
                                eckes@zusammenkunft.netE This user is from outside of this forum
                                eckes@zusammenkunft.net
                                wrote sidst redigeret af
                                #120

                                @hzulla if only there would be something Like anacron.

                                1 Reply Last reply
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                                • datenwolf@chaos.socialD datenwolf@chaos.social

                                  @hzulla

                                  Uhh...

                                  I certainly do. For the longest time I wondered what would happen if one deployed a malware that

                                  - synchronized clocks by NTP
                                  - shut down all affected systems at precisely the same time on the evening (so that power plants are ramped down quicker)
                                  - and at the time where normally the evening dip would turn upward suddenly turn on all those systems again (ACPI RTC wakeup) and launched some really CPU & GPU heavy load.

                                  newstik@social.heise.deN This user is from outside of this forum
                                  newstik@social.heise.deN This user is from outside of this forum
                                  newstik@social.heise.de
                                  wrote sidst redigeret af
                                  #121

                                  @datenwolf @hzulla Such an attack is more feasible with a relatively small number of devices if you attack the links between larger electricity networks.

                                  Here's an article from 2017 (German only)
                                  https://www.heise.de/news/Botnetze-koennen-das-Stromnetz-sabotieren-3927886.html?seite=all

                                  itgrrl@infosec.exchangeI 1 Reply Last reply
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                                  • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                                    This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                                    https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                                    newstik@social.heise.deN This user is from outside of this forum
                                    newstik@social.heise.deN This user is from outside of this forum
                                    newstik@social.heise.de
                                    wrote sidst redigeret af
                                    #122

                                    @hzulla When smartphones were relatively new, they would regularly cause issues on mobile networks, because they all checked for new email or other OOT messages at the same time. IIRC it wasn't event the data volume, it was the synchronized messaging traffic to open Mobile data connections.

                                    I understand that issue has been fixed.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • hzulla@infosec.exchangeH hzulla@infosec.exchange

                                      This is FASCINATING. Researchers were able to pin down the cause of measurable global 60 second power spikes to software that does regular checks on the minute mark. They found large scale battery installations as one major cause, but obviously this is true for any other computerized system that does cron jobs and has a synchronized clock. As weird as it sounds, adding random 0-59.999s delays to cron jobs in Linux distributions and other software would actually help the power grid.

                                      https://www.fz-juelich.de/en/news/archive/press-release/2026/mystery-of-60-second-fluctuations-in-power-grids-solved

                                      coder4hire@hachyderm.ioC This user is from outside of this forum
                                      coder4hire@hachyderm.ioC This user is from outside of this forum
                                      coder4hire@hachyderm.io
                                      wrote sidst redigeret af
                                      #123

                                      @hzulla @maxleibman years ago it was recommended to me that a cron jobs schedule should be set to a prime number so that its distribution would be semi random throughout the day, avoids spikes.

                                      I still follow that advice whenever I setup new jobs.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
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                                      • C closeted_unionist@mastodon.social

                                        @hzulla I don't understand. How does simultaneous power checks dip the frequency (in original paper)? Like I understand that at every minute mark there is some job running, but shouldn't the computation/ power usage be cheap for this?

                                        newstik@social.heise.deN This user is from outside of this forum
                                        newstik@social.heise.deN This user is from outside of this forum
                                        newstik@social.heise.de
                                        wrote sidst redigeret af
                                        #124

                                        @closeted_unionist @hzulla If you add significant load to a large electricity grid, the frequency falls, (until the power plant ramps up).

                                        1 Reply Last reply
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                                        • stevebellovin@infosec.exchangeS stevebellovin@infosec.exchange

                                          @mattblaze @hzulla Even way back when, I generally offset my cron jobs by a few minutes, just to avoid CPU and RAM (“core storage”) conflicts with other cron jobs.

                                          oclsc@mstdn.caO This user is from outside of this forum
                                          oclsc@mstdn.caO This user is from outside of this forum
                                          oclsc@mstdn.ca
                                          wrote sidst redigeret af
                                          #125

                                          @SteveBellovin @mattblaze @hzulla In the late 1990s I worked at a place that had a hundred or so systems all using the same file server. We used a simple wrapper for cron jobs run by all systems to smear out the impact: extract low octet of IP address, sleep that many seconds before starting.

                                          Nowadays I manage about 300 systems, but net and CPU and storage are fast enough that we don't get crowd-load effects. If we did I'd repeat the scheme but sleep N/10 or N/100 seconds.

                                          There's something to be said for changing cron to insert small random delays. I don't think it often (if ever) matters if a job starts a fraction of a second, or even a few seconds, after the exact start of the minute.

                                          drscriptt@oldbytes.spaceD 1 Reply Last reply
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