In order to unblock the Strait of Hormuz one must *checks notes* block the Strait of Hormuz.

[alpacamale@social.cologne]

@rysiek Why does everybody think this is a terrible move? It seems like a clever idea to take away Iran's ability to control the flow of oil from the gulf region. The idea being "Either ALL ships go through, or NONE of them". It seems like a desperate move, but doesn't that increase the pressure for both sides to come to a resolution?

[rysiek@mstdn.social]

@alpacamale because it even more strongly undermines the very basic idea of freedom of navigation.

What Iran is doing is already illegal, but the USA barging in and saying "hey we are going to also block the Strait of Hormuz" is arguably even worse: now even "the West" ignores a basic rule about freedom of navigation.

Which is going to be super useful for China in Taiwan Strait, Turkey in Bosporus and Dardanelles, or whoever decides to play that game in Gibraltar, Malacca, etc.

[rysiek@mstdn.social]

@alpacamale two wrongs do not make a right. "I will punch kids that gave their lunch money to the bully that threatened to punch them" does nothing to stop the bully, it re-victimizes the victims, and makes one a bully themselves.

[fzer0@nerdculture.de]

@rysiek

They'll have to pay a toll if they paid a toll.

[sea1am@mastodon.social]

@rysiek

Are we still assuming Trump doesn't understand the effect of his actions?

Calling him stupid and acting like he's not getting everything he wants is dangerous.

He's part of a group, and they have a plan. They are well funded, covert, conniving, and patient.

They are allied with other secretive groups around the world, and the epstein files are the tip of the iceberg.

Global chaos, destruction, and death are their current objectives.

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt10715148/

[kruku@mastodon.bida.im]

@rysiek
Even if the USA does keep the Straight of Hormuz blocked it doesn't mean that much to Iran since the USA has much more to lose so Iran can out wait the USA indefinitely. Besides...
https://mastodon.bida.im/@Kruku/116392687059501386

[fig@theforkiverse.com]

@rysiek master art of the deal in action

[veronica@mastodon.online]

@Guillotine_Jones @rysiek Yeah, I mean, it's funny because it is all so incredibly childish.

[meuwese@mastodon.social]

@aslakr @ohir @rysiek actually Trump has announced that any ship that pays the toll to Iran (no idea how the US would know?) would be blocked entirely. Which is as close to a direct declaration of war on China as we're probably going to get.

[lbcp@social.linux.pizza]

@rysiek I guess RFK Jr. told Trump about Homoeopathy.

[biglinter@mastodon.social]

@rysiek waylayer, solid

[stf@chaos.social]

@rysiek maybe this https://youtu.be/0nt1CgQsgpI has some merit and is an explanation?

[bontchev@infosec.exchange]

@rysiek Well, it does make a certain kind of sense. The Strait isn't really "blocked" - it has been converted into a toll booth. Traffic hasn't stopped completely but the only ones who are allowed through are Chinese ships (and those of a handful of other countries), and the only one who profits is Iran for collecting $2 mil per ship. Trump can't force Iran to free the Strait for all traffic, so he's doing what he can - cutting off Iran's profits and the oil to a country unfriendly to the USA.

Of course, it is stupid and will backfire in unpredictable ways, plunging the world further into a crisis - but it's certainly a logical plan any 6-year old could come up with.

[grumpydad@infosec.exchange]

@rysiek They're really plan on pissing off the whole world, aren't they?

[kitkat_blue@mastodon.social]

@rysiek

Ask me, he wants to get in on some of that tasty toll cash.

[softwaretheron@mas.to]

@rysiek
no no no. Trump is going to take a leaf from Tehran's book:
He's going to charge for access.
Tariffs by another name.

[the_wub@mastodon.social]

@rysiek I now fully understand the appeal of #caturday and #owlsintowels .

[felis_catus_domesticus@mstdn.party]

@rysiek

The USN will probably make some attempt to de-mine the straight, then declare it "safe", then "open". Let's be realistic here. The USAF will probably have it's hands full patrolling the Iranian coast from the air hunting for drones with A-10's & predators. Kharg island might get seized or heavily bombed, along with Iran's coastal bases near the straight. There aren't a whole lot of realistic scenarios here, regarardless of how one feels about any of them individually.

[felis_catus_domesticus@mstdn.party]

@bontchev @rysiek

Trump can't force Iran to free the Strait for all traffic

By destroying Iran's navy + drones he can, but this will take time. I think they are praying regime change happens in Iran before that, because destroying all of it is going to be expensive.. for the US taxpayer, not for Trump personally. Maybe that is the crux of the problem right there..

[felis_catus_domesticus@mstdn.party]

@bontchev @rysiek

Of course, it is stupid and will backfire in unpredictable ways, plunging the world further into a crisis

That is the sad truth. Not a lot of reliable allies in that region either. Lots of hyenas and jackals. But who can blame these groups.. they have been taught to be this way by the Ottomans, then the Brits, then the USA.. across several centuries and empires.