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  3. the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

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  • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

    the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

    > October 2025: Sam Altman flies to Seoul and signs simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 900,000 DRAM wafers per month. That's 40% of global supply. Neither company knew the other was signing a near-identical commitment at the same time.

    https://xcancel.com/aakashgupta/status/2038813799856374135

    ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA This user is from outside of this forum
    ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA This user is from outside of this forum
    ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
    wrote sidst redigeret af
    #2

    @davidgerard thanks sam!

    billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafeB 1 Reply Last reply
    0
    • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

      the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

      > October 2025: Sam Altman flies to Seoul and signs simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 900,000 DRAM wafers per month. That's 40% of global supply. Neither company knew the other was signing a near-identical commitment at the same time.

      https://xcancel.com/aakashgupta/status/2038813799856374135

      kjhank@social.vivaldi.netK This user is from outside of this forum
      kjhank@social.vivaldi.netK This user is from outside of this forum
      kjhank@social.vivaldi.net
      wrote sidst redigeret af
      #3

      @davidgerard There was this piece about it last year: https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal

      1 Reply Last reply
      0
      • ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA ariadne@social.treehouse.systems

        @davidgerard thanks sam!

        billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafeB This user is from outside of this forum
        billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafeB This user is from outside of this forum
        billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafe
        wrote sidst redigeret af
        #4

        @ariadne @davidgerard “Google publishes TurboQuant, a compression algorithm that reduces AI memory requirements by 6x with zero accuracy loss.”

        This algorithm is somehow only applicable to AI??

        ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA demofox@mastodon.gamedev.placeD 2 Replies Last reply
        0
        • billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafeB billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafe

          @ariadne @davidgerard “Google publishes TurboQuant, a compression algorithm that reduces AI memory requirements by 6x with zero accuracy loss.”

          This algorithm is somehow only applicable to AI??

          ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA This user is from outside of this forum
          ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA This user is from outside of this forum
          ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
          wrote sidst redigeret af
          #5

          @BillSaysThis @davidgerard yes, it is possible to create domain-specific compression algorithms that are better than general ones.

          vorsos@beige.partyV 1 Reply Last reply
          0
          • jwcph@helvede.netJ jwcph@helvede.net shared this topic
          • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

            the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

            > October 2025: Sam Altman flies to Seoul and signs simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 900,000 DRAM wafers per month. That's 40% of global supply. Neither company knew the other was signing a near-identical commitment at the same time.

            https://xcancel.com/aakashgupta/status/2038813799856374135

            evoscale@c.imE This user is from outside of this forum
            evoscale@c.imE This user is from outside of this forum
            evoscale@c.im
            wrote sidst redigeret af
            #6

            @davidgerard Since he's obviously alt Man, is he pro Caveman? Cuz we be headin' back there with his ilk in power.

            1 Reply Last reply
            0
            • ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA ariadne@social.treehouse.systems

              @BillSaysThis @davidgerard yes, it is possible to create domain-specific compression algorithms that are better than general ones.

              vorsos@beige.partyV This user is from outside of this forum
              vorsos@beige.partyV This user is from outside of this forum
              vorsos@beige.party
              wrote sidst redigeret af
              #7

              @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard Really? I’ve been using pngcrush for audio files.

              gnuplusknoppers@troet.cafeG qgustavor@urusai.socialQ cppguy@infosec.spaceC 3 Replies Last reply
              0
              • billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafeB billsaysthis@curmudgeon.cafe

                @ariadne @davidgerard “Google publishes TurboQuant, a compression algorithm that reduces AI memory requirements by 6x with zero accuracy loss.”

                This algorithm is somehow only applicable to AI??

                demofox@mastodon.gamedev.placeD This user is from outside of this forum
                demofox@mastodon.gamedev.placeD This user is from outside of this forum
                demofox@mastodon.gamedev.place
                wrote sidst redigeret af
                #8

                @BillSaysThis @ariadne @davidgerard if so, it's because they were doing something stupid and this fixes that IMO.

                davidgerard@circumstances.runD 1 Reply Last reply
                0
                • demofox@mastodon.gamedev.placeD demofox@mastodon.gamedev.place

                  @BillSaysThis @ariadne @davidgerard if so, it's because they were doing something stupid and this fixes that IMO.

                  davidgerard@circumstances.runD This user is from outside of this forum
                  davidgerard@circumstances.runD This user is from outside of this forum
                  davidgerard@circumstances.run
                  wrote sidst redigeret af
                  #9

                  @demofox @BillSaysThis @ariadne yeah I'd be slightly interested in the details, but also only slightly because (a) if it were applicable anywhere else we'd all know about it (b) we're far enough up and along the S curve i can see 6x the memory giving only a slight improvement. Maybe plain ML can benefit a lot, I dunno.

                  jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systemsJ abucci@buc.ciA reflex@retrogaming.socialR 3 Replies Last reply
                  0
                  • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

                    the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

                    > October 2025: Sam Altman flies to Seoul and signs simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 900,000 DRAM wafers per month. That's 40% of global supply. Neither company knew the other was signing a near-identical commitment at the same time.

                    https://xcancel.com/aakashgupta/status/2038813799856374135

                    phl@mastodon.socialP This user is from outside of this forum
                    phl@mastodon.socialP This user is from outside of this forum
                    phl@mastodon.social
                    wrote sidst redigeret af
                    #10

                    @davidgerard Fuck, and I say this without any reservation whatsoever, Sam Altman.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • vorsos@beige.partyV vorsos@beige.party

                      @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard Really? I’ve been using pngcrush for audio files.

                      gnuplusknoppers@troet.cafeG This user is from outside of this forum
                      gnuplusknoppers@troet.cafeG This user is from outside of this forum
                      gnuplusknoppers@troet.cafe
                      wrote sidst redigeret af
                      #11

                      @Vorsos @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard so?

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

                        the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

                        > October 2025: Sam Altman flies to Seoul and signs simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 900,000 DRAM wafers per month. That's 40% of global supply. Neither company knew the other was signing a near-identical commitment at the same time.

                        https://xcancel.com/aakashgupta/status/2038813799856374135

                        fritzadalis@infosec.exchangeF This user is from outside of this forum
                        fritzadalis@infosec.exchangeF This user is from outside of this forum
                        fritzadalis@infosec.exchange
                        wrote sidst redigeret af
                        #12

                        @davidgerard @ariadne
                        So glad memory is cheap again now. Wait, what?

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

                          @demofox @BillSaysThis @ariadne yeah I'd be slightly interested in the details, but also only slightly because (a) if it were applicable anywhere else we'd all know about it (b) we're far enough up and along the S curve i can see 6x the memory giving only a slight improvement. Maybe plain ML can benefit a lot, I dunno.

                          jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systemsJ This user is from outside of this forum
                          jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systemsJ This user is from outside of this forum
                          jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systems
                          wrote sidst redigeret af
                          #13

                          @davidgerard @demofox @BillSaysThis @ariadne my question is just whether this will make RAM less expensive. I’m guessing “no”, because that would be a good thing, and it seems increasingly likely that we can’t have those.

                          ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA 1 Reply Last reply
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                          • jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systemsJ jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systems

                            @davidgerard @demofox @BillSaysThis @ariadne my question is just whether this will make RAM less expensive. I’m guessing “no”, because that would be a good thing, and it seems increasingly likely that we can’t have those.

                            ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA This user is from outside of this forum
                            ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA This user is from outside of this forum
                            ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
                            wrote sidst redigeret af
                            #14

                            @davidgerard @demofox @BillSaysThis @jnkrtech it did not

                            jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systemsJ 1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • ariadne@social.treehouse.systemsA ariadne@social.treehouse.systems

                              @davidgerard @demofox @BillSaysThis @jnkrtech it did not

                              jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systemsJ This user is from outside of this forum
                              jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systemsJ This user is from outside of this forum
                              jnkrtech@social.treehouse.systems
                              wrote sidst redigeret af
                              #15

                              @ariadne @davidgerard @demofox @BillSaysThis 🥲

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

                                the precise timeline of how OpenAI fucked over the RAM market

                                > October 2025: Sam Altman flies to Seoul and signs simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 900,000 DRAM wafers per month. That's 40% of global supply. Neither company knew the other was signing a near-identical commitment at the same time.

                                https://xcancel.com/aakashgupta/status/2038813799856374135

                                rogerb@mastodon.scotR This user is from outside of this forum
                                rogerb@mastodon.scotR This user is from outside of this forum
                                rogerb@mastodon.scot
                                wrote sidst redigeret af
                                #16

                                @davidgerard
                                Assuming he got a fixed price as part of the deal...
                                he can now sell them on and make a tidy profit, hence boosting OpenAI's numbers for the next investment round and/or going public.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                0
                                • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

                                  @demofox @BillSaysThis @ariadne yeah I'd be slightly interested in the details, but also only slightly because (a) if it were applicable anywhere else we'd all know about it (b) we're far enough up and along the S curve i can see 6x the memory giving only a slight improvement. Maybe plain ML can benefit a lot, I dunno.

                                  abucci@buc.ciA This user is from outside of this forum
                                  abucci@buc.ciA This user is from outside of this forum
                                  abucci@buc.ci
                                  wrote sidst redigeret af
                                  #17
                                  @davidgerard@circumstances.run @demofox@mastodon.gamedev.place @BillSaysThis@curmudgeon.cafe @ariadne@treehouse.systems A couple points, bearing in mind that this is the first time I'm encountering TurboQuant and might be misspeaking:

                                  • This is perhaps neither here nor there, but the X account making the originally-quoted post is https://www.aibyaakash.com , "AI by Aakash" (this is linked later in the same thread). The person seems fully AI-pilled and has several AI-themed substacks
                                  • TurboQuant, or at least the QJL bit, sounds suspiciously like Locality-Sensitive Hashing. That's a well-known technique, and it can definitely do impressive things. When I tried my hand at startups I made heavy use of it (see https://bucci.onl/notes/Legit-tech ). In my use case I could get something like a 1,000-fold compression with acceptable accuracy loss. Basically LSH can be used to turn a long vector of floats into a comparatively short bitstring without losing too much of the geometrical information in the float vectors. Even one bit packs a ton of information
                                  • The general problem of vector search that this method aims to address is an old one, and rotating or compressing the vectors is nothing new. In old school linear algebra things like diagonalization or SVD do this, for instance. I don't know if that's what they're doing but it's a general class of technique and a straightforward thing to try
                                  • Vector quantization is, of course, also quite old. You experience it every time you listen to an MP3.
                                  So, it's possible this is a characteristic Google move of taking existing science, ramming it through their engineering machine, and suggesting novelty with a clever title, headline, and/or new name. Which is not to suggest it's a bad piece of engineering. I couldn't say. However, it's possible this is a Google rebrand, and the questions raised in this thread, like "wouldn't we already know about this? wouldn't it be applied outside of AI?" are answered by: yes, we did already know about this and yes, it has already been applied outside of AI. Oh and yes, it'd be quite silly if nobody thought to try these old school techniques in the latest incarnation of LLM-based AI before 2026.
                                  1 Reply Last reply
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                                  • davidgerard@circumstances.runD davidgerard@circumstances.run

                                    @demofox @BillSaysThis @ariadne yeah I'd be slightly interested in the details, but also only slightly because (a) if it were applicable anywhere else we'd all know about it (b) we're far enough up and along the S curve i can see 6x the memory giving only a slight improvement. Maybe plain ML can benefit a lot, I dunno.

                                    reflex@retrogaming.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                                    reflex@retrogaming.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                                    reflex@retrogaming.social
                                    wrote sidst redigeret af
                                    #18

                                    @davidgerard @demofox @BillSaysThis @ariadne UFD Tech discussed it the other day and it only applies to a very specific aspect of AI resulting in a tiny overall shrink in memory consumption that's being used to load slightly larger models. And it started being used middle of last year, meaning it's already baked in.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • vorsos@beige.partyV vorsos@beige.party

                                      @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard Really? I’ve been using pngcrush for audio files.

                                      qgustavor@urusai.socialQ This user is from outside of this forum
                                      qgustavor@urusai.socialQ This user is from outside of this forum
                                      qgustavor@urusai.social
                                      wrote sidst redigeret af
                                      #19

                                      @Vorsos @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard Reminds me of when I took a bunch of manga PNG, converted then to BMP and compressed all back using 7z and the resulting file was smaller than compressing the original PNGs using 7z

                                      1 Reply Last reply
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                                      • vorsos@beige.partyV vorsos@beige.party

                                        @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard Really? I’ve been using pngcrush for audio files.

                                        cppguy@infosec.spaceC This user is from outside of this forum
                                        cppguy@infosec.spaceC This user is from outside of this forum
                                        cppguy@infosec.space
                                        wrote sidst redigeret af
                                        #20

                                        @Vorsos

                                        I can't tell if you're serious, but Ariadne is right. Simple example: Flac will losslessly compress audio better than zip or gzip will. That's why it was invented. 😄

                                        @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard

                                        K 1 Reply Last reply
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                                        • cppguy@infosec.spaceC cppguy@infosec.space

                                          @Vorsos

                                          I can't tell if you're serious, but Ariadne is right. Simple example: Flac will losslessly compress audio better than zip or gzip will. That's why it was invented. 😄

                                          @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard

                                          K This user is from outside of this forum
                                          K This user is from outside of this forum
                                          katlin@mastodon.social
                                          wrote sidst redigeret af
                                          #21

                                          @CppGuy @Vorsos @ariadne @BillSaysThis @davidgerard

                                          Interestingly enough, Chinchilla 70B was trained mostly on text and beat domain-specific compressors PNG and FLAC in one experiment.

                                          https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10668

                                          Not saying you are wrong. I assume that newer, domain-specific algorithms would still outperform the general Chinchilla algorithm, and there can be practical downsides if they involve large memory requirements, even if they result in more efficient compression.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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