Commentary continues to pour out re: Trump's war against Iran.
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"Now an undeclared, unauthorized, unpopular, and unconstitutional war of aggression against Iran has spread like wildfire through the region and into Europe. A new 'forever war'—with an ever-increasing likelihood of American troops on the ground—may very well be upon us.
As we’ve seen over and over, this administration uses lies, misdirection, and attempts to flood the zone to justify its abuses of power at home and abroad."
"So basically this mess is like turning off the spigot that controls 20 percent of the world’s oil flow. ... This is one of those shocks that is going to be very hard to get back to any sort of status quo before the war. There’s also no end in sight. ...
Can we extricate ourselves? With the tariffs, he could say, '20 percent tariff today,' & then back off, leaving aside the illegality of doing that."
~ Elizabeth Saunders
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"So basically this mess is like turning off the spigot that controls 20 percent of the world’s oil flow. ... This is one of those shocks that is going to be very hard to get back to any sort of status quo before the war. There’s also no end in sight. ...
Can we extricate ourselves? With the tariffs, he could say, '20 percent tariff today,' & then back off, leaving aside the illegality of doing that."
~ Elizabeth Saunders
"He clearly thinks that is what will happen here—that he can just choose the moment where he wants to undo this and go back to the way it was. Leaving aside all the other reasons why that’s probably not possible—such as trust in the U.S., the Israelis might not be ready to stop—just assume all those problems are solvable. What you have now is the Strait of Hormuz has become militarized in a way that it wasn’t before."
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"Time and again, national pundits and the White House press corps invent a logical Donald Trump who sets, announces, and later “changes” real 'policies' or 'plans,' failing to convey what is clear to anyone who is actually following events closely: In each public appearance and social media post, the Mad King Donald Trump spouts a string of words, devoid of meaning or purpose, that may or may not represent anything at all."
@wdlindsy He’s the original LLM. But without the massive corpus of training data, because he is undereducated.
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"He clearly thinks that is what will happen here—that he can just choose the moment where he wants to undo this and go back to the way it was. Leaving aside all the other reasons why that’s probably not possible—such as trust in the U.S., the Israelis might not be ready to stop—just assume all those problems are solvable. What you have now is the Strait of Hormuz has become militarized in a way that it wasn’t before."
"It’s not clear that Iran will stop shooting if they feel it’s necessary for them to keep the war going, for international reasons, for domestic reasons."
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"Instead of expressing concern about rising costs for Americans, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social celebrating the price spikes. In his message, Trump argued that higher oil prices are good because the United States is the largest oil producer in the world and therefore 'makes a lot of money' when prices rise."
~ Ben Meiselas
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #prices #economy #affordability
/8https://www.meidasplus.com/p/thursday-afternoon-updates-trump
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"Instead of expressing concern about rising costs for Americans, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social celebrating the price spikes. In his message, Trump argued that higher oil prices are good because the United States is the largest oil producer in the world and therefore 'makes a lot of money' when prices rise."
~ Ben Meiselas
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #prices #economy #affordability
/8https://www.meidasplus.com/p/thursday-afternoon-updates-trump
"He framed the surge as a positive development while insisting the war is necessary to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. For Americans paying more at the pump, that message is likely to land very differently. But good for Trump’s wealthy oil baron friends, I guess."
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #prices #economy #affordability
/9 -
"He framed the surge as a positive development while insisting the war is necessary to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. For Americans paying more at the pump, that message is likely to land very differently. But good for Trump’s wealthy oil baron friends, I guess."
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #prices #economy #affordability
/9"Racing to respond to the utterly predictable impact of its Iran attack on global oil prices, President Trump made the impromptu policy announcement that the U.S. government would backstop insurers shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but as the WSJ reports, the administration had little idea what it was proposing:"
~ David Kurtz
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #prices #economy #affordability
/10https://morningmemo.talkingpointsmemo.com/p/of-course-it-did-trump-tantrum-led
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"Racing to respond to the utterly predictable impact of its Iran attack on global oil prices, President Trump made the impromptu policy announcement that the U.S. government would backstop insurers shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but as the WSJ reports, the administration had little idea what it was proposing:"
~ David Kurtz
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #prices #economy #affordability
/10https://morningmemo.talkingpointsmemo.com/p/of-course-it-did-trump-tantrum-led
"'U.S. officials called London insurers and brokers, trying to figure out how the market operates, industry insiders said. Some have received calls asking for confidential data on the Lloyd’s market that participants have been reluctant to share.'
Experts on the insurance market tell the WSJ that insurers are still willing to underwrite shipping through the Strait of Hormuz but that shippers, understandably, aren’t willing to risk the lives of their crews."
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"Time and again, national pundits and the White House press corps invent a logical Donald Trump who sets, announces, and later “changes” real 'policies' or 'plans,' failing to convey what is clear to anyone who is actually following events closely: In each public appearance and social media post, the Mad King Donald Trump spouts a string of words, devoid of meaning or purpose, that may or may not represent anything at all."
@wdlindsy Chinese state media stopped trying to extract policy signals from Trump statements around 2018. they track actions now.
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"'U.S. officials called London insurers and brokers, trying to figure out how the market operates, industry insiders said. Some have received calls asking for confidential data on the Lloyd’s market that participants have been reluctant to share.'
Experts on the insurance market tell the WSJ that insurers are still willing to underwrite shipping through the Strait of Hormuz but that shippers, understandably, aren’t willing to risk the lives of their crews."
"As we keep pointing out, if the US and the rest of the world had actually taken the threat of climate change seriously for the past three decades and sharply ramped up clean energy production, we’d all be less subject to sudden interruptions of oil supplies by now."
~ Marty Kelley
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz
/12https://www.wonkette.com/p/maybe-trump-bombed-some-schools-but
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"As we keep pointing out, if the US and the rest of the world had actually taken the threat of climate change seriously for the past three decades and sharply ramped up clean energy production, we’d all be less subject to sudden interruptions of oil supplies by now."
~ Marty Kelley
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz
/12https://www.wonkette.com/p/maybe-trump-bombed-some-schools-but
"Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes."
~ Clea Skopeliti
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #Dubai #Israel
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"Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes."
~ Clea Skopeliti
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #StraitofHormuz #Dubai #Israel
/13"Senior Iranian officials warned of a long 'war of attrition' and a global economic crisis stemming from Tehran’s choking off of the region’s energy supplies, and oil prices on Thursday again topped $100 a barrel before dipping to $98."
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"For generations the alliance between the United States and Israel has been treated in Washington as something close to unquestionable—an assumption embedded so deeply in American strategic thinking that it often appears less like a policy choice than a permanent feature of the geopolitical landscape.
Which raises a deeper question."
~ Elisabeth Glassco
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
/15https://400years.substack.com/p/no-one-wants-to-fight-for-israelso
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"For generations the alliance between the United States and Israel has been treated in Washington as something close to unquestionable—an assumption embedded so deeply in American strategic thinking that it often appears less like a policy choice than a permanent feature of the geopolitical landscape.
Which raises a deeper question."
~ Elisabeth Glassco
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
/15https://400years.substack.com/p/no-one-wants-to-fight-for-israelso
"Why has this relationship endured with such extraordinary durability for so long?
To answer that question requires looking beyond the ceremonial language of democracy and shared values that usually defines the alliance. It requires examining the historical forces that made the partnership possible—and the political structures that continue to sustain it."
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
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"Why has this relationship endured with such extraordinary durability for so long?
To answer that question requires looking beyond the ceremonial language of democracy and shared values that usually defines the alliance. It requires examining the historical forces that made the partnership possible—and the political structures that continue to sustain it."
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
/16"The alliance between the United States and Israel endures because three forces reinforce one another: strategic necessity, political affinity, and domestic power. ...
Both the United States and Israel are profoundly unfree and racially riven societies."
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
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"The alliance between the United States and Israel endures because three forces reinforce one another: strategic necessity, political affinity, and domestic power. ...
Both the United States and Israel are profoundly unfree and racially riven societies."
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
/17"The President of the United States has engaged our country in a war for no discernible reason except distraction – and apparently because being at war can be cool and fun. Just like video games. ...
It’s all a game. It’s all a game. It’s all a game.
Until Game Over."
~ Keith Owens
wearespeaking.net/p/war-games-are-not-a-game
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"'U.S. officials called London insurers and brokers, trying to figure out how the market operates, industry insiders said. Some have received calls asking for confidential data on the Lloyd’s market that participants have been reluctant to share.'
Experts on the insurance market tell the WSJ that insurers are still willing to underwrite shipping through the Strait of Hormuz but that shippers, understandably, aren’t willing to risk the lives of their crews."
I vaguely used to know an insurance underwriter. As I understood his job, it was about studying and sometimes visiting the most troubled spots on the planet, in order to price the risk.
Yes of course Lloyd's will still underwrite shipping through the straits of Hormuz. Lloyd's loves this stuff, at a price. For insurance underwriters, high risk means high profit.
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"The President of the United States has engaged our country in a war for no discernible reason except distraction – and apparently because being at war can be cool and fun. Just like video games. ...
It’s all a game. It’s all a game. It’s all a game.
Until Game Over."
~ Keith Owens
wearespeaking.net/p/war-games-are-not-a-game
"One prominent rationale for the Israeli-American attack on Iran is to bomb the country into friendliness to the US and Israel. ...
The real goals of Trump’s war cannot be found in his strategic vision, which is overshadowed, if it even exists, by a pinwheeling embrace of postures that serve his vanity and his short-term political interests."
~ Eli Clifton and Ian S. Lustick
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
/19https://www.thenation.com/article/world/trump-iiran-war-israel-us-foreign-policy/
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"One prominent rationale for the Israeli-American attack on Iran is to bomb the country into friendliness to the US and Israel. ...
The real goals of Trump’s war cannot be found in his strategic vision, which is overshadowed, if it even exists, by a pinwheeling embrace of postures that serve his vanity and his short-term political interests."
~ Eli Clifton and Ian S. Lustick
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
/19https://www.thenation.com/article/world/trump-iiran-war-israel-us-foreign-policy/
"While most combat operations have been undertaken by the US military, at considerable risk to US service members and costs borne by American taxpayers, the war was born, planned, and insisted upon by Israel, and its long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu."
#Trump #Netanyahu #Iran #Israel #war
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I vaguely used to know an insurance underwriter. As I understood his job, it was about studying and sometimes visiting the most troubled spots on the planet, in order to price the risk.
Yes of course Lloyd's will still underwrite shipping through the straits of Hormuz. Lloyd's loves this stuff, at a price. For insurance underwriters, high risk means high profit.
Historical note: Lloyd's of London developed as a re-insurance/underwriting market mainly to support shipping trades ...
At a period in history when shipwreck was a major risk (there were also pirates, as there still are now, but shipwreck was more likely).
So yeah, Lloyd's loves risk
