By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
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@cstross
As has been the Israeli strategy vs Hamas: keep killing anyone who can negotiate.
As if people wouldn't notice. -
RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650
By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.
Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.
@cstross Arguably, this is exactly what Israel wants. No de-escalation, just a relentless push to create a failed state? Seems plausible to me.
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RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650
By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.
Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.
@cstross At war's end, MacArthur was at pains to shield the Showa Emperor for a reason.
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@Illuminatus @cstross
They are clearly going after the lands of countries that won't be able to actually fight back.
Not only snubbing the internationally recognized "1967" borders, but now looking to take southern Lebanon as well.
So far though: no moves at Egypt, Saudi, or Jordan. For they would be a very different ball game than Palestine & Lebanon.Which leaves Syria. another hornets nest Netanyahu and the whole far-right regime in Israel might go for messing up even more.
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RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650
By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.
Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.
@cstross there's an article somewhere - poss the economist - that says Iranian IGRC has broken the entire military into autonomous, independent, cells
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RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650
By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.
Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.
@cstross Israel doesn't want de-escalation. They want complete regional dominance and genocide. They learned well from Nazi Germany.
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RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650
By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.
Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.
@cstross a terrible strategy if you want de-escalation. But if you want escalation- or even just keep the war moving along - it's a strategy that will work for that
I'm fairly certain that Israel wants all out war with Iran at this point, not a return to the status quo ante. Netanyahu has been wanting an all out war against Iran and its proxies for decades and finally has a US pres and SecDef that were dumb enough he could convince them to go along edt: and a secdef believer in the Rapture
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@Illuminatus @cstross
They are clearly going after the lands of countries that won't be able to actually fight back.
Not only snubbing the internationally recognized "1967" borders, but now looking to take southern Lebanon as well.
So far though: no moves at Egypt, Saudi, or Jordan. For they would be a very different ball game than Palestine & Lebanon.Which leaves Syria. another hornets nest Netanyahu and the whole far-right regime in Israel might go for messing up even more.
@Gurre @cstross The issue with the far right arseholes with territorial aspirations is that they eventually give in to the belicist bullshit, but also have their fash purity culture generating ever reducing definitions of who's a "true Scotsman". Both things combined are fatal to the continued existence of their political entities, but it won't be me who complains.
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@Gurre @cstross The issue with the far right arseholes with territorial aspirations is that they eventually give in to the belicist bullshit, but also have their fash purity culture generating ever reducing definitions of who's a "true Scotsman". Both things combined are fatal to the continued existence of their political entities, but it won't be me who complains.
@Gurre @cstross Oh, BTW, there is this about personalist vs. institutional regimes in ACOUP (linked, very appropriately, in the same last entry about the Iran war). https://acoup.blog/2026/03/06/fireside-friday-march-6-2026/
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RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650
By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.
Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.
@cstross They are a great way to create martyrs however. And whoever follows is usually more radical because they will be picked for their plans of retaliation.
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@cstross a terrible strategy if you want de-escalation. But if you want escalation- or even just keep the war moving along - it's a strategy that will work for that
I'm fairly certain that Israel wants all out war with Iran at this point, not a return to the status quo ante. Netanyahu has been wanting an all out war against Iran and its proxies for decades and finally has a US pres and SecDef that were dumb enough he could convince them to go along edt: and a secdef believer in the Rapture
@Jer@chirp.enworld.org @cstross@wandering.shop Israel seems to be mostly interested in ensuring that America is in all-out war with Iran so that they have cover to annex and commit genocide in Lebanon while eyes are elsewhere.. but still, de-escalation doesn't help them with that. -
RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650
By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.
At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.
Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.
Bibi and Trump don't give a shit about negotiating. They want to prove they are Big Men and stay out of prison for their crimes.
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@Illuminatus @cstross
They are clearly going after the lands of countries that won't be able to actually fight back.
Not only snubbing the internationally recognized "1967" borders, but now looking to take southern Lebanon as well.
So far though: no moves at Egypt, Saudi, or Jordan. For they would be a very different ball game than Palestine & Lebanon.Which leaves Syria. another hornets nest Netanyahu and the whole far-right regime in Israel might go for messing up even more.
The Saudis seem fine with all this nonsense. MBS has his deal with Jared, so I assume he's in on the game.
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@cstross Israel doesn't want de-escalation. They want complete regional dominance and genocide. They learned well from Nazi Germany.
Yup, Israel has become what they once abhorred
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The Saudis seem fine with all this nonsense. MBS has his deal with Jared, so I assume he's in on the game.
@darwinwoodka MbS got his own Vietnam in Yemen, though now everybody is doing as if nothing had happened, just as they are doing like 'the Line' was any viable project and not a scam. The Saud family is a nest of scorpions and I hope some day another heir presumptive does to him what he did to others. @Gurre @cstross
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@Gurre @cstross Oh, BTW, there is this about personalist vs. institutional regimes in ACOUP (linked, very appropriately, in the same last entry about the Iran war). https://acoup.blog/2026/03/06/fireside-friday-march-6-2026/
@Illuminatus @Gurre By this analysis, Iran has an institutionalist regime *even if* it has a "supreme leader". Which is *very* bad news for Israeli and US attempts to assassinate their way to a solution.
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@Illuminatus @Gurre By this analysis, Iran has an institutionalist regime *even if* it has a "supreme leader". Which is *very* bad news for Israeli and US attempts to assassinate their way to a solution.
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@cstross @Gurre The worst nightmare I can conceive of that situation is a lot of commanders of the IRGC having envelopes with instructions to operate under the principle of inflicting the maximum possible damage to the enemy in the absence of orders from the top and continue the fight to the bitter end with whatever resources are at hand.
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@cstross
As has been the Israeli strategy vs Hamas: keep killing anyone who can negotiate.
As if people wouldn't notice. -
@Illuminatus @cstross
They are clearly going after the lands of countries that won't be able to actually fight back.
Not only snubbing the internationally recognized "1967" borders, but now looking to take southern Lebanon as well.
So far though: no moves at Egypt, Saudi, or Jordan. For they would be a very different ball game than Palestine & Lebanon.Which leaves Syria. another hornets nest Netanyahu and the whole far-right regime in Israel might go for messing up even more.
@Gurre @Illuminatus @cstross they just need living space!
