Whenever I see the three doors in a row on W.M.
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Whenever I see the three doors in a row on W.M. Whyte's 1885 tenements on Queen's Drive in Glasgow, I'm always reminded of the Monty Hall Problem. Based on the US game show Let's Make a Deal, this problem shows how poor the intuitive human understanding of probabilities actually is.
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#glasgow #architecture #doors #probability #tenement #montyhallproblem
The problem goes something like this: A gameshow host presents a contestant with three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the other two are goats. If the contestant can pick the door with the car behind it, they win the car. After the contestant picks a door, the gameshow host opens one of the other doors to reveal a goat behind it, and then offers the contestant the chance to swap their chosen door for the other unopened one.
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The problem goes something like this: A gameshow host presents a contestant with three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the other two are goats. If the contestant can pick the door with the car behind it, they win the car. After the contestant picks a door, the gameshow host opens one of the other doors to reveal a goat behind it, and then offers the contestant the chance to swap their chosen door for the other unopened one.
Cont./
What should the contestant do to maximise their chance of winning the car?
Intuituvely most people will say stick with the door they originally chose, but probability tells us that the best option is always to swap. This because there's a 66.6% chace the car is behind the other unopened door (and not the 50%, or 33.3% most people intuitively assume it is).
Happy Friday!
#glasgow #architecture #doors #probability #tenement #montyhallproblem
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What should the contestant do to maximise their chance of winning the car?
Intuituvely most people will say stick with the door they originally chose, but probability tells us that the best option is always to swap. This because there's a 66.6% chace the car is behind the other unopened door (and not the 50%, or 33.3% most people intuitively assume it is).
Happy Friday!
#glasgow #architecture #doors #probability #tenement #montyhallproblem
@thisismyglasgow or you might want the goat.
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@thisismyglasgow or you might want the goat.
@ianturton Yes, it's never made clear if you can keep the goat if you pick the goat!
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What should the contestant do to maximise their chance of winning the car?
Intuituvely most people will say stick with the door they originally chose, but probability tells us that the best option is always to swap. This because there's a 66.6% chace the car is behind the other unopened door (and not the 50%, or 33.3% most people intuitively assume it is).
Happy Friday!
#glasgow #architecture #doors #probability #tenement #montyhallproblem
@thisismyglasgow For completeness' sake, it's worth pointing out that the gameshow host knows where the car is.
Also, they did an equivalent on this experiment with pigeons, and pigeons are better at the Monty Hall problem than we are.
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@thisismyglasgow For completeness' sake, it's worth pointing out that the gameshow host knows where the car is.
Also, they did an equivalent on this experiment with pigeons, and pigeons are better at the Monty Hall problem than we are.
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What should the contestant do to maximise their chance of winning the car?
Intuituvely most people will say stick with the door they originally chose, but probability tells us that the best option is always to swap. This because there's a 66.6% chace the car is behind the other unopened door (and not the 50%, or 33.3% most people intuitively assume it is).
Happy Friday!
#glasgow #architecture #doors #probability #tenement #montyhallproblem
@thisismyglasgow That's very interesting.
But I'd just wonder where the hell that middle door goes. World's narrowest house?
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@thisismyglasgow That's very interesting.
But I'd just wonder where the hell that middle door goes. World's narrowest house?
@ColesStreetPothole The middle door is the entrance to the communal stairway leading to the upper flats. The outer doors are the private entrances to the two ground floor flats. As far as I know, there are no goats behind any of them (then again, it is Glasgow so anything is possible)!
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@ColesStreetPothole The middle door is the entrance to the communal stairway leading to the upper flats. The outer doors are the private entrances to the two ground floor flats. As far as I know, there are no goats behind any of them (then again, it is Glasgow so anything is possible)!
@thisismyglasgow Okay, that makes sense. Though it'd be funny if the middle one was just a closet with a goat.
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@thisismyglasgow Okay, that makes sense. Though it'd be funny if the middle one was just a closet with a goat.
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