Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI.
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@namedbird @MikeElgan I saw the movie 'The Big Short', so maybe that counts. So, do you think the same insanity logic might be at play here?
Let's face it, the AI, as yet, doesn't seem to be all it's cracked up to be.
Seems like they are all racing to an obvious plateau. I wonder what percentage of those budgets were spent on advertising for AI.
@dckim @MikeElgan We had ChatGPT impressing everyone with conversational capabilities, so it created a lot of hype and hope. But i suspect that this is also what created a too positive view on AI, resulting in misplaced confidence.
The market will eventually adjust to fit the actual worth of this new technology, and if that adjustment is downwards, you'd better not be too exposed to the financial fallout that would take place. (Many large players are way too leveraged into this.)
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
Nvidia, meanwhile...
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan Very true. The same will be true of the data centers, because they all are not needed. Most are real estate transactions being negotiated without a shovel in sight. Hopefully the true need will be calcuable soon.
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@MikeElgan I'd love to see stats added on how much profit they create for the fossil industry and how much funding they get from the fossil industry.
Because that's the AI buisness model. Without AI we'd have energy transition.
PS: Also alt text would be nice for inclusivity (not AI written of course).
@PaulaToThePeople I suspect that the energy requirements of AI may end up accellerating the change to green energy because it will faster scale it because its cheaper. When you have to grow your power-net a lot you will scale green energy and faster grow confident in transitioning entirely.
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"Good Lord, where are they getting the money for this?"
And then you scroll up and that one single massive green bar…
🫨
If the difference between red and green bar is the multiplier one can expect for any AI service subscription these companies offer, ouch.
"Venture capital looks at valuations and growth, not necessarily at profit or revenue. So you don’t actually have to invest in technology that works, or that even makes a profit, you simply have to have a narrative that is compelling enough to float those valuations. So you see this repetitive and exhausting hype cycle as a feature in this industry. A couple of years ago, you would have been asking me about the metaverse, then last year, you would have asked me about Web3 and crypto, and for each of these inflection points there’s an Andreessen Horowitz manifesto."
"It’s not simply that one piece of technology is overhyped, it’s that hype is a necessary ingredient of the current business ecosystem of the tech industry. We should examine how often the financial incentive for hype is rewarded without any real social returns, without any meaningful progress in technology, without these tools and services and worlds ever actually manifesting. That’s key to understanding the growing chasm between the narrative of techno-optimists and the reality of our tech-encumbered world."
— Meredith Whittaker, Signal CEO, to Derek Robertson. "5 Questions for Meredith Whittaker". Politico, 2023-12-01.
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan Wait, OpenAI makes money? Also is "spending" just buying cloud services from the others?
"The AI economy is circular: Google funds Anthropic, Anthropic runs on Google Cloud, Amazon funds Anthropic, Microsoft co-invests with OpenAI. This means aggregate industry figures double-count some revenue flows."
Ah, concern addressed.
Where's Palantir?
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan Particularly distressing when paired with this list of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization in the S&P 500:
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@mrgrumpymonkey @MikeElgan
Nvidia got lucky (most business succeeds by luck not judgement IMO!), as did their investor Softbank who cashed out when the price plateaued in Nov '25.This is interesting on where they invested next (TL;DR - they are attempting to own the whole supply chain, based on much cheaper silicon tech):
https://dataconomy.com/2025/11/11/the-why-behind-softbank-nvidia-stake-sale/Once the first grifters leave, the bubble's days are numbered I rekon (I hope!).
@phlash @MikeElgan Just completing the circle to inflate the numbers. We get to live in an AI marketing world, while these companies keep getting rich. The marketing side is only going to get worse it seems. I'm not fully against the products, but I am against how it's being forced onto everyday devices that don't need it. Capitalism at it's finest.
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan nvidia seems to be getting profits on it though (the only one on the list that is)
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
Addicted users will soon start paying for a subscription.
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan "since page load" is a hell of a metric
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
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I wonder could it take down one of the behemoths?
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan
What's NVidia's one weird trick? -
Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@davidgerard You've likely seen this but in any case...
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Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan the problem is they don't care how many billions they lose, in this market what matters is getting your stock price pumped as high as possible which is very stupid and hurts consumers a lot while benefiting idiot investors who would buy shares of dog turds if they had "AI" written on them -
Now you can keep track of how many billions the AI companies are losing on AI. (Red is spending, green is revenue.) https://isaiprofitable.com/
@MikeElgan another 1 billion!
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"Venture capital looks at valuations and growth, not necessarily at profit or revenue. So you don’t actually have to invest in technology that works, or that even makes a profit, you simply have to have a narrative that is compelling enough to float those valuations. So you see this repetitive and exhausting hype cycle as a feature in this industry. A couple of years ago, you would have been asking me about the metaverse, then last year, you would have asked me about Web3 and crypto, and for each of these inflection points there’s an Andreessen Horowitz manifesto."
"It’s not simply that one piece of technology is overhyped, it’s that hype is a necessary ingredient of the current business ecosystem of the tech industry. We should examine how often the financial incentive for hype is rewarded without any real social returns, without any meaningful progress in technology, without these tools and services and worlds ever actually manifesting. That’s key to understanding the growing chasm between the narrative of techno-optimists and the reality of our tech-encumbered world."
— Meredith Whittaker, Signal CEO, to Derek Robertson. "5 Questions for Meredith Whittaker". Politico, 2023-12-01.
If the C level at all those companies burning budget on AI also holds Nvidia stock…
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