"Last week I wrote about the political and media response to the war in Iran.
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"Why is this happening? Because markets have projected a sense of rationality onto Trump. Just like everyone else, they have found a way to psychologically deal with his existence by pretending the world is more familiar than it really is."
"The frequency of his mad outbursts should make us all more frightened, but in fact it has the opposite effect. If Barack Obama had come out during his time as president and said that he was going to invade Greenland, the markets would have lost their shit in a biblical way. It would have been considered so shocking that the reaction would have been historic. The collapse of everything."
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" At the moment, the price of oil is obviously very high, but in future investors expect it to drop quickly. Why? What is it about events which would give someone that sense of reassurance? The natural reaction is to assume that people with skin in the game know best. I don’t think that’s right. I think they are part of a shared hallucination in favour of normality, a brain tuned to a base-case scenario."
@Remittancegirl All you need do is look at the delusional behavior of the stock market... start a war stock goes up--- economy goes down- stock goes up--- raise prices for everything (tariffs)- stocks go up--- Tariffs are ruled illegal- stocks go up--- new tariff scam is invented- stocks go up... Welcome to the 'funny farm' where everything is run by idiots.
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"Last week I wrote about the political and media response to the war in Iran. This week I’m going to write about the market reaction. In both cases, we are witnessing the same process: the refusal of people to accept that the world is run by a madman"
Really excellent essay by Ian Dunt.
And, for the writers out there, if you have the time, listen to the author's read version, where he actually talks about his self-edits aloud. It's a rather excellent live lesson in editing a tight, coherent essay.
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"The frequency of his mad outbursts should make us all more frightened, but in fact it has the opposite effect. If Barack Obama had come out during his time as president and said that he was going to invade Greenland, the markets would have lost their shit in a biblical way. It would have been considered so shocking that the reaction would have been historic. The collapse of everything."
"Then there is the other Taco problem. This takes place when he wants to chicken out but is unable to. This is probably the most dangerous possible scenario. It’s the one we’re in right now.
Trump cannot chicken out of Iran because he is not the only actor participating in it.
The markets have largely swallowed the fundamental underlying Trump idiocy, which is that he is the only pertinent person in world affairs. Plainly he believes this, but he is wrong.
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"Last week I wrote about the political and media response to the war in Iran. This week I’m going to write about the market reaction. In both cases, we are witnessing the same process: the refusal of people to accept that the world is run by a madman"
Really excellent essay by Ian Dunt.
@Remittancegirl The only one not recognizing the mad men are “the base.”
As for ruling the world, more like bullying & destroying while the world re-orders.
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"Then there is the other Taco problem. This takes place when he wants to chicken out but is unable to. This is probably the most dangerous possible scenario. It’s the one we’re in right now.
Trump cannot chicken out of Iran because he is not the only actor participating in it.
The markets have largely swallowed the fundamental underlying Trump idiocy, which is that he is the only pertinent person in world affairs. Plainly he believes this, but he is wrong.
"We have been presented with a world of madness, a world in which rules no longer operate and reason no longer has dominion over instinct. It is run according to the shifting demands of one utterly banal and vicious old man, who thinks nothing of human lives or of elementary decency, and pursues only his own advantage, as perceived through the shattered mirror of his mind.
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"We have been presented with a world of madness, a world in which rules no longer operate and reason no longer has dominion over instinct. It is run according to the shifting demands of one utterly banal and vicious old man, who thinks nothing of human lives or of elementary decency, and pursues only his own advantage, as perceived through the shattered mirror of his mind.
"There will come a point, I think, where it no longer becomes possible to escape the brute force of reality. When that point comes, the herd-instinct of the markets will work against Trump in a particularly painful way. But for the time being, we seem to be stuck in this strange mirage, in which perfectly rational people project their sense of reason onto a madman, so that living in the world feels more palatable."
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"There will come a point, I think, where it no longer becomes possible to escape the brute force of reality. When that point comes, the herd-instinct of the markets will work against Trump in a particularly painful way. But for the time being, we seem to be stuck in this strange mirage, in which perfectly rational people project their sense of reason onto a madman, so that living in the world feels more palatable."
I honestly think that might have been the most coherent, clarity-laden essay on the state of the world as it really is that I've read.
I highly recommend reading it.
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"Last week I wrote about the political and media response to the war in Iran. This week I’m going to write about the market reaction. In both cases, we are witnessing the same process: the refusal of people to accept that the world is run by a madman"
Really excellent essay by Ian Dunt.
"Taco became a way of making money."
Excellent piece but it should say "another way of making money". Dunt doesn't emphasise enough the connection between the importance of making of money for those supporting Trump in the first place. The game of words of deference is because Trump has permission to use anything, even sadistic warfare, to make short-term money for himself and others. His interest in this and avoidance of upsetting Russia is predictable. The stock-market is supporting Trump's chosen role as dictator, because there is currently no political alternative. The stockmarket is not playing politics but reading it.
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"There will come a point, I think, where it no longer becomes possible to escape the brute force of reality. When that point comes, the herd-instinct of the markets will work against Trump in a particularly painful way. But for the time being, we seem to be stuck in this strange mirage, in which perfectly rational people project their sense of reason onto a madman, so that living in the world feels more palatable."
@Remittancegirl That is excellent writing. Thanks for sharing it.
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@Remittancegirl That is excellent writing. Thanks for sharing it.
@SCampbell did you listen to his audio version?
It's actually quite amazing listening to him polish up the essay as he reads it.
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I honestly think that might have been the most coherent, clarity-laden essay on the state of the world as it really is that I've read.
I highly recommend reading it.
@Remittancegirl my only objection is calling people who do this "perfectly rational". They are acting irrationally, choosing to ignore evidence because it contradicts their greed.
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"We have been presented with a world of madness, a world in which rules no longer operate and reason no longer has dominion over instinct. It is run according to the shifting demands of one utterly banal and vicious old man, who thinks nothing of human lives or of elementary decency, and pursues only his own advantage, as perceived through the shattered mirror of his mind.
@Remittancegirl
I thought you were leading up to offering a sage remedy. I’m disappointed. -
@SCampbell did you listen to his audio version?
It's actually quite amazing listening to him polish up the essay as he reads it.
@Remittancegirl @SCampbell I’ve read it, passed on the link and shall now listen to it. Thanks for the pointer. His Origins podcast is excellent.
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@Remittancegirl @SCampbell I’ve read it, passed on the link and shall now listen to it. Thanks for the pointer. His Origins podcast is excellent.
@wilpercy @SCampbell Yes, it really is!
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@Remittancegirl
I thought you were leading up to offering a sage remedy. I’m disappointed.@MBtrueb I am quoting from the article.
I have no sage remedy.
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"Then there is the other Taco problem. This takes place when he wants to chicken out but is unable to. This is probably the most dangerous possible scenario. It’s the one we’re in right now.
Trump cannot chicken out of Iran because he is not the only actor participating in it.
The markets have largely swallowed the fundamental underlying Trump idiocy, which is that he is the only pertinent person in world affairs. Plainly he believes this, but he is wrong.
@Remittancegirl Economics has long been known to rest, as a discipline, on an incorrect belief : that "the market" is populated with rational actors who largely behave in a well-informed rational manner. It's just false. A herd of sheep who smell a wolf in the night would be a better model.
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"We have been presented with a world of madness, a world in which rules no longer operate and reason no longer has dominion over instinct. It is run according to the shifting demands of one utterly banal and vicious old man, who thinks nothing of human lives or of elementary decency, and pursues only his own advantage, as perceived through the shattered mirror of his mind.
@Remittancegirl that's about Putin or Trump?
In both cases pointing to a single old fart is missing the foresst for the trees ( <-- badly translated German proverb)
There's large parts of both societies that enable those horrible excuses for humans.
Those people are the bigger problem most of "us" (rational humans) refuse to acknowledge. -
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