It's been obvious for a few years that the AI industry is building a great bigfinancial bomb made of recycled debt, but I'm sort of amazed at just *how* big the bomb is.
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@nygl @davidgerard if there is anything tracking US indices then those trackers can be up to 40% US AI slop because the market is so warped.
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It's been obvious for a few years that the AI industry is building a great big
financial bomb made of recycled debt, but I'm sort of amazed at just *how* big the bomb is.Even if AI was *all that* technically - which it isn't - the financial bomb will *still* go off.
At this point the questions should all be: when, not if, it goes off - what happens next?
@davidgerard I am not sure a lot happens beyond a lot of imaginary money for imaginary data centres full of imaginary chips vanishes The people who put the money in at the bottom cash out fine, the people who were late and index funds don't.
If you loan someone 300 million to buy chips as yet unmade and they give you the 300 million back in orders and then go bust providing you got the collateral against the loan right nothing actually moves. -
It's been obvious for a few years that the AI industry is building a great big
financial bomb made of recycled debt, but I'm sort of amazed at just *how* big the bomb is.Even if AI was *all that* technically - which it isn't - the financial bomb will *still* go off.
At this point the questions should all be: when, not if, it goes off - what happens next?
@davidgerard
I expect a paralell to the 2008 crisis:
There's so much wealth tied in these companies, many will be bailed out by the state(s). Massive redistribution from the bottom to the top.
To the sheer financial to big to fail there's the ai companies sold themselves as important industry, another motive for the state to step in. -
@davidgerard
I expect a paralell to the 2008 crisis:
There's so much wealth tied in these companies, many will be bailed out by the state(s). Massive redistribution from the bottom to the top.
To the sheer financial to big to fail there's the ai companies sold themselves as important industry, another motive for the state to step in.@niedlichenacktschnecke the money doesn't exist to "bail out" OpenAI and Anthropic. I mean they could declare they're printing $1t, or they could not do that. Who will structurally *need* bailing out?
or maybe i'm assuming governmental competence not in evidence
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@davidgerard I am not sure a lot happens beyond a lot of imaginary money for imaginary data centres full of imaginary chips vanishes The people who put the money in at the bottom cash out fine, the people who were late and index funds don't.
If you loan someone 300 million to buy chips as yet unmade and they give you the 300 million back in orders and then go bust providing you got the collateral against the loan right nothing actually moves.@etchedpixels @davidgerard I do idly wonder how much government 'growth' is predicated on this at the moment though. Labour seem to be resting on it far too much.
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It's been obvious for a few years that the AI industry is building a great big
financial bomb made of recycled debt, but I'm sort of amazed at just *how* big the bomb is.Even if AI was *all that* technically - which it isn't - the financial bomb will *still* go off.
At this point the questions should all be: when, not if, it goes off - what happens next?
@davidgerard Just another doomsday prophecy
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It's been obvious for a few years that the AI industry is building a great big
financial bomb made of recycled debt, but I'm sort of amazed at just *how* big the bomb is.Even if AI was *all that* technically - which it isn't - the financial bomb will *still* go off.
At this point the questions should all be: when, not if, it goes off - what happens next?
the most important humans have their well equipped bunkers - the others can look into their future as soylent green
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It's been obvious for a few years that the AI industry is building a great big
financial bomb made of recycled debt, but I'm sort of amazed at just *how* big the bomb is.Even if AI was *all that* technically - which it isn't - the financial bomb will *still* go off.
At this point the questions should all be: when, not if, it goes off - what happens next?
@davidgerard yup the bomb will go off and then we will all have to pick up the pieces
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@davidgerard
I expect a paralell to the 2008 crisis:
There's so much wealth tied in these companies, many will be bailed out by the state(s). Massive redistribution from the bottom to the top.
To the sheer financial to big to fail there's the ai companies sold themselves as important industry, another motive for the state to step in.@niedlichenacktschnecke @davidgerard I hope one difference there is that 2008 society would have stopped functioning in many respects if that many banks / mortgage lenders / etc vanished overnight, but if "AI" vanishes, what does that mean to the average person, Google Search gets a bit less bad?
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It's been obvious for a few years that the AI industry is building a great big
financial bomb made of recycled debt, but I'm sort of amazed at just *how* big the bomb is.Even if AI was *all that* technically - which it isn't - the financial bomb will *still* go off.
At this point the questions should all be: when, not if, it goes off - what happens next?
@davidgerard Whatever it is,DAO 216-26 seems like an indicator that the Department of Commerce doesn't have a carpet big enough to hide the consequences of it bursting.
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