I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people that the reason the 2000 bug didn't destroy a significant amount of our infrastructure is because *we caught it* and *spent thousands of hours fixing it* BEFORE the year 2000
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@johnzajac Next time there's a Y2K problem, you fix it and deploy the fix only after everything fails.
I think the issue with this is that the cascading problems that come from fixing it *after* it hits hard can't be undone nearly as easily as fixing it ahead of time.
Like the long-tail effects of COVID minimizing at a population level, climate change, vaccine denialism, pollution controls, etc.
While I sympathize with accelerationist ethos at times, disasters that would legitimately kill millions that you can prevent are not appropriate disasters to flirt with for clout.
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The triple punch of water treatment, modern sanitation, pollution controls vaccines, and antibiotics - all either invented or implemented in the 20th century - led to a period of plague-free living that was, quite frankly, longer than at any other period in *human history*.
The world's half-assed non-addressing of the ongoing COVID pandemic betrays as much a failure of experience as it does a failure of imagination when it comes to "how bad" plagues can be.
And the last people who remember WWII are dying, too. Not sanguine about this.
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I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people that the reason the 2000 bug didn't destroy a significant amount of our infrastructure is because *we caught it* and *spent thousands of hours fixing it* BEFORE the year 2000
Because within that little perplexion - people thinking the problem was a hoax because it was fixed before it destroyed shit - is an encapsulation of the current era of Western politics, including COVID mitigation, lesser evil politics, fascism, and crime rate hyperbole
@johnzajac I spent so many nights in server racks and under desks
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I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people that the reason the 2000 bug didn't destroy a significant amount of our infrastructure is because *we caught it* and *spent thousands of hours fixing it* BEFORE the year 2000
Because within that little perplexion - people thinking the problem was a hoax because it was fixed before it destroyed shit - is an encapsulation of the current era of Western politics, including COVID mitigation, lesser evil politics, fascism, and crime rate hyperbole
@johnzajac well, we were a few 100000 fixing it and at the time, what, 5 Billion people hearing about it.
Our experience that it was real wasn't their experience. The world always is simpler if you're not an expert -
@johnzajac well, we were a few 100000 fixing it and at the time, what, 5 Billion people hearing about it.
Our experience that it was real wasn't their experience. The world always is simpler if you're not an expertWhich, of course, is why I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people about it rather than just letting them make assumptions and be manipulated by cynics.
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I think the issue with this is that the cascading problems that come from fixing it *after* it hits hard can't be undone nearly as easily as fixing it ahead of time.
Like the long-tail effects of COVID minimizing at a population level, climate change, vaccine denialism, pollution controls, etc.
While I sympathize with accelerationist ethos at times, disasters that would legitimately kill millions that you can prevent are not appropriate disasters to flirt with for clout.
@johnzajac Most of the Y2K bugs were banking software. Backup all data, let the Y2K bugs lose people really lots of virtual money, restore the data from backup, run the fixed programs.
Having the option to back up data is not available for things like vaccines. People really die.
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Which, of course, is why I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people about it rather than just letting them make assumptions and be manipulated by cynics.
@johnzajac I know, and sorry for stating the obvious.
I share the frustration.
I just don't think you can teach people compleyity (which is what it is, at the end: predicting the likely behaviour of a complex system and modifying it, if necessary)
For the majority, it will continue to be a black box and an event that didn't happen. -
@johnzajac Most of the Y2K bugs were banking software. Backup all data, let the Y2K bugs lose people really lots of virtual money, restore the data from backup, run the fixed programs.
Having the option to back up data is not available for things like vaccines. People really die.
My understanding is that lots of government systems (and adjacent systems) were built pre 1990 and had a lot of exposure to the Y2K bug.
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My understanding is that lots of government systems (and adjacent systems) were built pre 1990 and had a lot of exposure to the Y2K bug.
@johnzajac Even airport reservation systems were not Y2K proof. Probably leaving one of those buggy and have a few days booking chaos on the airports during winter holiday would have made sure people understood that the effort was worth it.
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@johnzajac I know, and sorry for stating the obvious.
I share the frustration.
I just don't think you can teach people compleyity (which is what it is, at the end: predicting the likely behaviour of a complex system and modifying it, if necessary)
For the majority, it will continue to be a black box and an event that didn't happen.The idea that people cannot be taught complexity, or even communicated with at all, is silly and particularly modern.
This refusal to communicate is both fascist (re: the political class) and fatalistic, as well as self-fulfilling: I won't tell you, then I'll decide you cannot learn because you do not know what I didn't tell you, so next time I won't tell you, again, because I was right!
It's like "I won't try to pass this policy because it will not pass, proving it couldn't pass."
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The idea that people cannot be taught complexity, or even communicated with at all, is silly and particularly modern.
This refusal to communicate is both fascist (re: the political class) and fatalistic, as well as self-fulfilling: I won't tell you, then I'll decide you cannot learn because you do not know what I didn't tell you, so next time I won't tell you, again, because I was right!
It's like "I won't try to pass this policy because it will not pass, proving it couldn't pass."
A not-insignificant number of major problems in our society are driven by the attitude that "_____ is impossible, therefore I will never try ______, which proves that ______ is impossible."
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A not-insignificant number of major problems in our society are driven by the attitude that "_____ is impossible, therefore I will never try ______, which proves that ______ is impossible."
@johnzajac The people who tried that during CoViD, like Fauci or Drosten here in Germany, faced death threats for just that.
Don't get me wrong: I don't disagree with you, and even less do I want to be a naysayer, I just feel that, given what we've seen the last decades, it's not as easy.
I guess what I'm trying to say is: I'm at a loss.
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Which, of course, is why I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people about it rather than just letting them make assumptions and be manipulated by cynics.
@johnzajac @pjakobs It may not have been formally taught, which I suspect is what you're wanting, but it's certainly been mentioned a reasonable amount.
Every time someone who isn't in IT hears about it, they won't believe it was a problem. Sure, some of the 'BIOS updates' were rubbish, and for some applications all that was affected was the display of a date (although that can itself be an issue), but even mentioning real bugs doesn't tend to shift opinion much.
Even with the huge numbers of public hacking incidents, security is still a maligned profession. Same with backup.
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I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people that the reason the 2000 bug didn't destroy a significant amount of our infrastructure is because *we caught it* and *spent thousands of hours fixing it* BEFORE the year 2000
Because within that little perplexion - people thinking the problem was a hoax because it was fixed before it destroyed shit - is an encapsulation of the current era of Western politics, including COVID mitigation, lesser evil politics, fascism, and crime rate hyperbole
@johnzajac I think the general cynical opinion about y2k efforts pretty much explains why computing is such a dumpster fire today.
Part of the problem is the lions' share of y2k fixes were very simple, and that's not what the high-status IT experts want today.
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@johnzajac @pjakobs It may not have been formally taught, which I suspect is what you're wanting, but it's certainly been mentioned a reasonable amount.
Every time someone who isn't in IT hears about it, they won't believe it was a problem. Sure, some of the 'BIOS updates' were rubbish, and for some applications all that was affected was the display of a date (although that can itself be an issue), but even mentioning real bugs doesn't tend to shift opinion much.
Even with the huge numbers of public hacking incidents, security is still a maligned profession. Same with backup.
@syllopsium @johnzajac I think the underlying question is really interesting:
how can we have a world where
a) people trust experts and
b) people don't listen to charlatansthe core thing is then: how can someone who is not an expert distinguish between those two.
The key learnings for that, in my mind, would be to
- understand and learn to distrust your own confirmation bias
- understand and accept how much you don't know -
A not-insignificant number of major problems in our society are driven by the attitude that "_____ is impossible, therefore I will never try ______, which proves that ______ is impossible."
@johnzajac @pjakobs remembering and empathising with all the above.
On the "thing is hard", I fully blame the media for its complicity. Their unwillingness to embrace educating their audience, and instead communicate simple solutions as part of some "both sides" impartiality has cost nations their critical thinking ability.
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@johnzajac @pjakobs remembering and empathising with all the above.
On the "thing is hard", I fully blame the media for its complicity. Their unwillingness to embrace educating their audience, and instead communicate simple solutions as part of some "both sides" impartiality has cost nations their critical thinking ability.
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I wish we had spent the last 26 years teaching people that the reason the 2000 bug didn't destroy a significant amount of our infrastructure is because *we caught it* and *spent thousands of hours fixing it* BEFORE the year 2000
Because within that little perplexion - people thinking the problem was a hoax because it was fixed before it destroyed shit - is an encapsulation of the current era of Western politics, including COVID mitigation, lesser evil politics, fascism, and crime rate hyperbole
@johnzajac A pal wrote his dissertation on precisely this a few years ago. Monograph forthcoming in a couple years.
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@syllopsium @johnzajac I think the underlying question is really interesting:
how can we have a world where
a) people trust experts and
b) people don't listen to charlatansthe core thing is then: how can someone who is not an expert distinguish between those two.
The key learnings for that, in my mind, would be to
- understand and learn to distrust your own confirmation bias
- understand and accept how much you don't know@pjakobs @johnzajac Also understand that an expert is likely to provide :
an answer you don't like
an answer that's significantly more nuanced than expected
a resolution that may take some timeGiven this is not what a lot of people want, it's an uphill battle.
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@pjakobs @johnzajac Also understand that an expert is likely to provide :
an answer you don't like
an answer that's significantly more nuanced than expected
a resolution that may take some timeGiven this is not what a lot of people want, it's an uphill battle.
There's another thing we've learned form Covid:
What is considered intellectual honesty is read as intellectual weakness by many:Someone who deeply understands a topic will
a) be careful with black and white statements
b) change their position if they have new information
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