This article represent a niche but persistent trend of Western "experts" claiming that #Ukraine Operation Spiderweb was "too much", because "Russia will respond" and such operations "will not stop Russia anyway":

[kravietz@agora.echelon.pl]

This article represent a niche but persistent trend of Western “experts” claiming that #Ukraine Operation Spiderweb was “too much”, because “Russia will respond” and such operations “will not stop Russia anyway”:

https://www.defensepriorities.org/opinion/drone-attack-may-do-ukraine-more-harm-than-good/

The ignorance of these claims stems from the belief that Russia is somehow constantly ‘refraining’ from ‘escalation’ as long as Ukraine defends itself ‘in a limited manner’, within some imaginary borders – e.g. ‘on its own territory, but not attacking Russia’ or ‘using X, but not Y’. The same tone can be seen in voices concerned about “response” and “escalation” each time Ukraine crosses another imaginary “red-line”.

As a reminder, on 25 May Russia attacked Ukraine with total 267 aerial weapons, from drones to cruise missiles, killing civilians and destroying dozens of civilian targets. The number was largest… in May, but it’s the daily routine for the whole country under fire. If Russia now attacks with say 362 weapons, that’s technically constitutes an ‘escalation’ but it does not change anything in the overall picture.

First Russian rockets that killed civilians were fired on the very 24 February 2022. In response to various successful Ukrainian operations Russia already executed what they openly called “retaliatory strikes” (удары возмездия) on hospitals, power & heating plants, schools, museums or just residential houses. Where do you think they can ‘escalate’ from here?

If Russia had any legal or moral brakes, it would not have killed 13,000 Ukrainian civilians since 2022 (accounted by UN, on Ukraine-controlled territory only). If it had any resources for major escalation itself, it would not be desperately buying soldiers from North Korea to compensate for human losses of 20,000 to take a single village after a year of siege.

Russia does not need any legal or common-sense reason to escalate - Russia had been constantly escalating its aggression since 2014.

This whole “Western expert” argument therefore boils down to the sophism that ‘if Ukraine dares to resist, Russia will escalate.’ The problem is that Russia also does not have common-sense limits to “resistance” as we understand it. As a reminder, for Russians, the Ukrainian defensive fortifications built between 2014 and 2022 were ‘aggression.’

And ‘resistance’ for Russians is anything short of an enthusiastic acceptance of the occupation — even Ukrainians speaking Ukrainian is ‘resistance’ that must be suppressed! How do we know? This happening all the time on the occupied territories.

In other words, the whole argument of ‘don’t do X because they will escalate’ boils down to the fact that the only guarantee of ‘non-escalation’ is to forcefully bare your teeth and wave the Soviet flag while Russian soldiers rape and loot.

Only then, maybe, will they not ‘escalate’ by killing you. Maybe. But you must praise their rape efforts in proper Russian language, and thank them for ‘liberation’ all the time.