Ah, there's the TACO.
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So if I understand correctly (it's all still in flux): Two weeks cease fire between Iran and USA (unclear what Israel will do). Strait of Hormuz to be opened during these two weeks. Pakistan brokered the deal.
hopefully the israelis and houthis go along. i know if i were a ship captain, i wouldn't want to go through...
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@jwildeboer The White House says Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire, though of course that report would carry more weight if it came from Israel
@jalefkowit Seems to be reliable intel. https://climatejustice.social/@OhWeh/116365919135977776
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Ah, there's the TACO. Two weeks. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
@jwildeboer haha, he chickened out of doing a genocide, good joke
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So if I understand correctly (it's all still in flux): Two weeks cease fire between Iran and USA (unclear what Israel will do). Strait of Hormuz to be opened during these two weeks. Pakistan brokered the deal.
Iran also agrees to the ceasefire and the opening of the strait.
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Iran also agrees to the ceasefire and the opening of the strait.
@jwildeboer So who from Pakistan is getting the peace prize?
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So if I understand correctly (it's all still in flux): Two weeks cease fire between Iran and USA (unclear what Israel will do). Strait of Hormuz to be opened during these two weeks. Pakistan brokered the deal.
@jwildeboer inadvertently (and admittedly still sleepy) I misread "nuclear" instead of "unclear" in your toot and I admit for a sec my blood pressure went up.
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Ah, there's the TACO. Two weeks. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
@jwildeboer und auf dem Weg haben er und seine Freunde, vermutlich richtig viel Geld an der Börse gemacht, durch diese Beeinflussung der „Märkte“
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Iran also agrees to the ceasefire and the opening of the strait.
Israel's Netanyahu declares that his war against Lebanon is NOT part of the cease-fire. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
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Israel's Netanyahu declares that his war against Lebanon is NOT part of the cease-fire. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
Thus the TL;DR in my opinion: A cease-fire but the war is not really over, 21st of April is the new deadline #5, Pakistan has emerged as deal broker, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but under Iranian control, the flow of fossil fuel however will not simply recover as a lot of infrastructure in the region has been bombed and it will need months to be repaired, Iran's leadership stays in control, no regime change in sight and Israel continues to fight in Lebanon.
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Thus the TL;DR in my opinion: A cease-fire but the war is not really over, 21st of April is the new deadline #5, Pakistan has emerged as deal broker, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but under Iranian control, the flow of fossil fuel however will not simply recover as a lot of infrastructure in the region has been bombed and it will need months to be repaired, Iran's leadership stays in control, no regime change in sight and Israel continues to fight in Lebanon.
@jwildeboer I don't think there was a prediction market item for that. Just one that there will be a cease-fire by the 7th or something like that. But I'd have to check again.
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Thus the TL;DR in my opinion: A cease-fire but the war is not really over, 21st of April is the new deadline #5, Pakistan has emerged as deal broker, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but under Iranian control, the flow of fossil fuel however will not simply recover as a lot of infrastructure in the region has been bombed and it will need months to be repaired, Iran's leadership stays in control, no regime change in sight and Israel continues to fight in Lebanon.
@jwildeboer and the US accepted their military presence in the Middle East is at least negotiable, which would be unthinkable 1 month ago.
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Thus the TL;DR in my opinion: A cease-fire but the war is not really over, 21st of April is the new deadline #5, Pakistan has emerged as deal broker, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but under Iranian control, the flow of fossil fuel however will not simply recover as a lot of infrastructure in the region has been bombed and it will need months to be repaired, Iran's leadership stays in control, no regime change in sight and Israel continues to fight in Lebanon.
My expectations: This is enough for Trump to pull out of the region, declare some sort of win that only he and his regime believe in. He will leave the fallout to the rest of the world to deal with. The planned show of power has however completely failed. The US military could not prove its superiority. Ultimately Trump has caused more damage to the role of the US than anyone dares to admit right now.
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My expectations: This is enough for Trump to pull out of the region, declare some sort of win that only he and his regime believe in. He will leave the fallout to the rest of the world to deal with. The planned show of power has however completely failed. The US military could not prove its superiority. Ultimately Trump has caused more damage to the role of the US than anyone dares to admit right now.
IF (and that's a huge if) the democrats in the US get their act together, this will mean the midterms are lost for Trump and the republicans. Good spin doctors could turn this around, but Trump will never accept good spin doctors in his vicinity. Europe and NATO members made the right decision to stay out of all of this. Time for my first coffee. The world is a bit safer today but far from stability.
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Ah, there's the TACO. Two weeks. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
@jwildeboer
Market manipulation is his specialty: The DAX has just shot up by nearly 5% and 1,000(!) points 🤪 -
Ah, there's the TACO. Two weeks. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
@jwildeboer Has anyone checked the stock exchanges for insider trading? I am pretty sure he will change his mind tomorrow.
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My expectations: This is enough for Trump to pull out of the region, declare some sort of win that only he and his regime believe in. He will leave the fallout to the rest of the world to deal with. The planned show of power has however completely failed. The US military could not prove its superiority. Ultimately Trump has caused more damage to the role of the US than anyone dares to admit right now.
@jwildeboer absolutely catastrophic. There will have to be a new world order after this.
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