New study: AMOC, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, could already start to collapse now (before or around 2025, 25% probability), even under current 'moderate' emission trajectories.
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New study: AMOC, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, could already start to collapse now (before or around 2025, 25% probability), even under current 'moderate' emission trajectories. For NW-Europe, this would mean much colder winters, stronger storms and less precipitation.
https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/collectie/13871/artikel/2579953-gevreesd-kantelpunt-in-de-golfstroom-mogelijk-al-halverwege-deze-eeuw-bereikt
Paper here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JC022651 -
New study: AMOC, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, could already start to collapse now (before or around 2025, 25% probability), even under current 'moderate' emission trajectories. For NW-Europe, this would mean much colder winters, stronger storms and less precipitation.
https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/collectie/13871/artikel/2579953-gevreesd-kantelpunt-in-de-golfstroom-mogelijk-al-halverwege-deze-eeuw-bereikt
Paper here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JC022651The news item focusses on the most probable year the collapse would begin (middle of the probability distribution), but also has the numbers for the 25th percentile; a very substantial risk. For the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), which comes close to our current trajectory, that's 2026.
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The news item focusses on the most probable year the collapse would begin (middle of the probability distribution), but also has the numbers for the 25th percentile; a very substantial risk. For the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), which comes close to our current trajectory, that's 2026.
Important message: rapid global emission reduction reduces the probability of an AMOC collapse.
Because the AMOC is already slowing down, the study's main author, René van Westen of @utrechtuniversity said on Dutch TV news that winter temperatures here may already start to go down.
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Important message: rapid global emission reduction reduces the probability of an AMOC collapse.
Because the AMOC is already slowing down, the study's main author, René van Westen of @utrechtuniversity said on Dutch TV news that winter temperatures here may already start to go down.
Prof. Caroline Katsman (TU Delft): "People sometimes joke that this will mean more ice skating. But we won't have time for that, because the entire food supply will break down."
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Prof. Caroline Katsman (TU Delft): "People sometimes joke that this will mean more ice skating. But we won't have time for that, because the entire food supply will break down."
Climate scientist Sybren Drijfhout (@unisouthampton ,
@utrechtuniversity
"The weather will be colder, rougher, and drier here in NW-Europe. Extra sea level rise, more storm floods, 1/3 less agricultural production. For centuries." -
Climate scientist Sybren Drijfhout (@unisouthampton ,
@utrechtuniversity "The weather will be colder, rougher, and drier here in NW-Europe. Extra sea level rise, more storm floods, 1/3 less agricultural production. For centuries."Reminder: This bears big risks (25% is a lot) for our energy system: we may have to deal with much colder winters within the lifetime of investments in power systems, heating systems, and (insulation of) homes!
I started talking about this in the Netherlands in 2016, but it's only slowly sinking in. -
Reminder: This bears big risks (25% is a lot) for our energy system: we may have to deal with much colder winters within the lifetime of investments in power systems, heating systems, and (insulation of) homes!
I started talking about this in the Netherlands in 2016, but it's only slowly sinking in.Just to be sure: the 'tipping point' discussed here is the *start* of the collapse, which from that point in time is unavoidable, but takes a long time.
From the paper's Plain Language Summary:
"If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. During that transition, the Northwestern European climate would change drastically and is expected to see colder winters, less rainfall, and more severe winter storms." -
Just to be sure: the 'tipping point' discussed here is the *start* of the collapse, which from that point in time is unavoidable, but takes a long time.
From the paper's Plain Language Summary:
"If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. During that transition, the Northwestern European climate would change drastically and is expected to see colder winters, less rainfall, and more severe winter storms."So what would happen if AMOC collapsed? Difficult question, but here's a tool to experiment with, by the same authors: https://amocscenarios.org/?lat=52&lon=5.25&model=cc_RCP45&is_amoc_on=false&is_delta=false&metric=temp_1_in_10_yr_min
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So what would happen if AMOC collapsed? Difficult question, but here's a tool to experiment with, by the same authors: https://amocscenarios.org/?lat=52&lon=5.25&model=cc_RCP45&is_amoc_on=false&is_delta=false&metric=temp_1_in_10_yr_min
An example: at 2°C of global warming, and a collapsed AMOC, the 1-in-10 year minimum daily (24 h average) temperature near Utrecht, the Netherlands, would be -20°C.
In pre-industrial times (with functioning AMOC) it was -7°C, and at 2°C global warming with functioning AMOC it would have reached -2°C -
An example: at 2°C of global warming, and a collapsed AMOC, the 1-in-10 year minimum daily (24 h average) temperature near Utrecht, the Netherlands, would be -20°C.
In pre-industrial times (with functioning AMOC) it was -7°C, and at 2°C global warming with functioning AMOC it would have reached -2°CWith a collapsed AMOC (takes >100 years), sea ice would be back with a vengeance. At 2°C of global warming, and a collapsed AMOC, it would reach down the North Sea halfway down the Dutch coast, to Amsterdam latitude!
At 2°C of global warming and a functioning AMOC, it would retreat to the far North. -
T tokeriis@helvede.net shared this topic
