New study: AMOC, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, could already start to collapse now (before or around 2025, 25% probability), even under current 'moderate' emission trajectories.
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Reminder: This bears big risks (25% is a lot) for our energy system: we may have to deal with much colder winters within the lifetime of investments in power systems, heating systems, and (insulation of) homes!
I started talking about this in the Netherlands in 2016, but it's only slowly sinking in.Just to be sure: the 'tipping point' discussed here is the *start* of the collapse, which from that point in time is unavoidable, but takes a long time.
From the paper's Plain Language Summary:
"If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. During that transition, the Northwestern European climate would change drastically and is expected to see colder winters, less rainfall, and more severe winter storms." -
Just to be sure: the 'tipping point' discussed here is the *start* of the collapse, which from that point in time is unavoidable, but takes a long time.
From the paper's Plain Language Summary:
"If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. During that transition, the Northwestern European climate would change drastically and is expected to see colder winters, less rainfall, and more severe winter storms."So what would happen if AMOC collapsed? Difficult question, but here's a tool to experiment with, by the same authors: https://amocscenarios.org/?lat=52&lon=5.25&model=cc_RCP45&is_amoc_on=false&is_delta=false&metric=temp_1_in_10_yr_min
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So what would happen if AMOC collapsed? Difficult question, but here's a tool to experiment with, by the same authors: https://amocscenarios.org/?lat=52&lon=5.25&model=cc_RCP45&is_amoc_on=false&is_delta=false&metric=temp_1_in_10_yr_min
An example: at 2°C of global warming, and a collapsed AMOC, the 1-in-10 year minimum daily (24 h average) temperature near Utrecht, the Netherlands, would be -20°C.
In pre-industrial times (with functioning AMOC) it was -7°C, and at 2°C global warming with functioning AMOC it would have reached -2°C -
An example: at 2°C of global warming, and a collapsed AMOC, the 1-in-10 year minimum daily (24 h average) temperature near Utrecht, the Netherlands, would be -20°C.
In pre-industrial times (with functioning AMOC) it was -7°C, and at 2°C global warming with functioning AMOC it would have reached -2°CWith a collapsed AMOC (takes >100 years), sea ice would be back with a vengeance. At 2°C of global warming, and a collapsed AMOC, it would reach down the North Sea halfway down the Dutch coast, to Amsterdam latitude!
At 2°C of global warming and a functioning AMOC, it would retreat to the far North. -
T tokeriis@helvede.net shared this topic
