In this video, I discuss what to expect in year five of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It will become obvious that Russia’s war economy is unsustainable. However, it’s questionable whether this will lead Russia to become more realistic in peace negotiations.

I discuss the possibility of another wave of mobilization in Russia, the risk of more protests and repression inside Russia, the outlook on the front line, the intensifying air war, and why Europe remains central to the outcome of the conflict. It’s also likely that Russia will intensify the hybrid war on Western Europe over the course of 2026.

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00:00 Intro
00:30 Year five of the war
00:49 The war of attrition
02:11 Putin’s bet on Western fatigue
02:52 Why Russia’s war economy is struggling
04:31 Will Russia become more serious about negotiations?
05:54 A new wave of mobilization?
07:10 Protests and repression inside Russia
08:09 Deadlock on the front line
09:09 The air war will intensify
09:48 Russia’s hybrid war against Western Europe
12:18 Channel announcement
13:17 Proton and digital sovereignty