@petergleick the devil is in the details, though - the fact that the footprint are almost the same size says soomething too;)

@sundogplanets correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.09643 kind of saying that we have at most 11 years (another solar maximum cycle) to basically have 100% probability of a Kessler syndrome more or less locking us from accessing LEO (at least with humans aboard) … and screwing up astronoy for years AND dumping bunch of interesting stuff into the upper layers of atmosphere? If yes - Why The F”&£ we are still allowing any mega-constellations and not downing the ones in orbit?