@maxleibman all this plays out in a competitive ecosystem.

From my perspective, GenAI is just a commodity productivity technology. Whether it's 10x or 0.5%... doesn't really matter.

If two companies are competing and one adopts the productivity technology... their competitors will follow along, getting the same advantage, returning to competing on price. It's table stakes that get passed on to customers as price/feature benefits, not an advantage, nor a profit moat.

(I don't know what the productivity factor is, or bringing an opinion on whether any of this is "good"... it's just an interesting system dynamic to think about)

@maxleibman I've never known engineering output to scale linearly with profit? Outside tiny startups.

At the small side, I expect we'll see a rise in very niche companies that previously may not have been feasible. Those with larger markets will ship faster and probably grow faster than in the past.

The big companies, are already big. eg I can't see AWS S3 suddenly going 10x, they already have the features and now it's mostly adoption and efficiency. Which takes the form of MS/Goog layoffs.

Funny enough, in the middle-tier, I've heard some are actually experiencing some margin erosion because features are suddenly a weak moat...