8. But Johnson's eyes aren't on the prize. They're on Daddy. If he closes the vote and we don't pass the bill, Trump says mean things about him. And in Johnson-land mean Trump things are WAY worse than 17 million Americans losing health insurance and millions of families going hungry.

7. If this bill passes, Americans die, deficits explode, climate investments turn off and the rich get richer. If it goes down, those bad things don't happen. Those are the stakes. Keep your eyes on the prize.

6. But then Massie flipped from yes to no. A hard putt suddenly became virtually impossible. And while the real time politics and soap operas are interesting, don't lose sight of the big picture...

5. Of the nos, Self and Fitzpatrick are almost certainly unflippable. Spartz is a random number generator so probably ungettable. Clyde is very rollable. The expectation an hour ago was that Johnson would flip Clyde, then the other holdouts would vote yes.

4. I'm keeping myself up anyway I can (including this thread) so that if they do some funny business I can get to the floor quick. But the more interesting dynamic here is between Johnson and Daddy Trump.

3. If the rule goes down, you can't proceed to debate, can't pass the bill. So there's a chance we torch the Big Ugly Bill tonight! That possibility is why we're still here. But there are a lot of slips twixt cup and lip - not least that if the rule fails anyone who voted no can bring it up again.

2. The 5 R nos are Self, Spartz, Fitzpatrick, Clyde and Massie. Note also that 8 Rs haven't voted - they are the freedom caucus wingnut brigade, but even if they all vote yes the rule still goes down as of now.

1. Parliamentary jargon: the "rule" sets the terms of debate, floor amendment process, etc. You have to pass it to enter debate, after which you vote on the bill. As a general matter, the party in the majority ALWAYS votes for the rule. You will note the 5 R defections as of now.

OK, time for another update. 12:20 AM right now. They did finally pass the Foxx amendment, then called a 5 minute vote on the rule. It is still open, but at least as of now looks like it is going to fail.