This pattern stands in contrast to the idea of Trumpism’s irresistible march towards consolidated authoritarian rule.
 
Remember: Being lawless, immoral, and violent does not make the Trumpists omnipotent. Obscuring that distinction is an act of defeatism that only serves the regime.

It’s just not true. A key dynamic over the past twelve months: Several times the Trumpists seemed poised to vanquish the democratic opposition and break through whatever obstacles the constitutional order was still placing in their path – but then were unable to force that next step.

A key part of the struggle against encroaching authoritarianism is to reject rather than perpetuate the Trumpist assertions of absolute power, to push back against the notion that resistance is futile – that MAGA is inevitably marching towards triumph.

They could, potentially, ramp up oppression dramatically in the face of popular discontent. But the Trumpists do not have the apparatus to do that, not even close, and such a strategy also has inherent limits: The regime still needs millions to comply in order to keep the machine going.

America still has competitive elections. And more generally, in a complex modern society, the government – no matter the regime type – inevitably depends on millions of people following along to some degree. They depend on some measure of consent from institutions and individuals alike.

But what the regime is doing in Minneapolis is extremely unpopular. Public support for ICE has plummeted.

And here’s is the thing: Even the most staunchly authoritarian regime must care about its public standing.

ICE wants to terrify people into submission and compliance so that they can operate with impunity, unimpeded, in semi-secrecy. It is not working. In every urban center these masked goons descend upon, the local community is rallying in solidarity.

That is immensely dangerous. But laying siege to an American city and producing a violent spectacle for the most extreme MAGA fans, with little popular support, is not an effective way to consolidate authoritarian control over a country that is roughly the size of continental Europe.

The Trumpists have no coherent idea of how to consolidate autocratic rule other than to lash out wherever they can. Confronted with hardening resistance, the only option they are left with, within the narrow universe of pathways MAGA is willing to consider, is to escalate.

Look, I am not the person to tell you that there is no reason to be alarmed. The situation is acutely dangerous. With this regime, ideology and ineptitude constantly conspire to make escalation almost inevitable, as MAGA is ideologically and psycho-politically incapable of moderating.

Judging from the reactions to the piece, the idea that protests and public opinion are meaningless in the face of a paramilitary occupation, that authoritarian regimes don’t need to care about popular support, is still widespread. But it is wrong. And it perpetuates regime propaganda.

I wrote about the limits of the authoritarian assault – and the need to push back against the idea that America is inevitably and irresistibly marching towards a Trump dictatorship.

Trump’s authoritarian desires are limitless. But his ability to impose them on America is not.

https://steady.page/en/democracyamericana/posts/a565b0ad-62e5-4f07-9e9b-2522407dae4b