LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox
100% agree.
I can imagine a hypothetical AGI of which 2026 style LLMs form a small part/interface... But the idea that these models can be the core of an AGI is bullshit on stilts. -
@Elizafox
100% agree.
I can imagine a hypothetical AGI of which 2026 style LLMs form a small part/interface... But the idea that these models can be the core of an AGI is bullshit on stilts.@jaystephens Exactly. We need more forms of machine learning besides this, but AI companies are like furiously going through their cue cards like "LLM... LLM... LLM..."
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@jaystephens Exactly. We need more forms of machine learning besides this, but AI companies are like furiously going through their cue cards like "LLM... LLM... LLM..."
@Elizafox
Fingers X'd the aftermath will be less destructive than previous "AI" backlashes -
@Elizafox
100% agree.
I can imagine a hypothetical AGI of which 2026 style LLMs form a small part/interface... But the idea that these models can be the core of an AGI is bullshit on stilts.@jaystephens @Elizafox The truth is that we don't have real AI yet. :3 -
@jaystephens @Elizafox The truth is that we don't have real AI yet. :3@jaystephens @Elizafox All we have is misleading marketing pushed by supervillains.
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@Elizafox
Yeah the gen AI bros have been annoyingly succesful at squatting on that term so that normal folks pretty much fully conflate AI with their products now. Sigh. -
LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox swindled is the operative word, also in general for capitalism.
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@jaystephens @Elizafox The truth is that we don't have real AI yet. :3
@tk
Ai is just a word that many people can define many ways. It's short, recognizable and everyone knows what it means. Today we use it to describe llms, yesterday we used it for video game opponents and Roomba robots, tomorrow who knows.
You can say that for you , you define ai differently than other people. But most people use it for llms today and not only linguistically, also technically it's a good word to use for that.
@jaystephens @Elizafox -
LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox
Some of the stuff ai models do today is quite impressive though...
The more I read about the hugging face exploit, the more it seems to me there is real progress done, when I thought we are platoing.I doubt llms can get to AGi however that is defined today, but it seems we can use them for a lot of other things.
Not to mention the infrastructure they bring. If there is a new paradigm, this computing power will be most likely needed to run it. -
LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox That's the same that Yann LeCun said leaving Meta, and I followed his researches since the 90s to early 2000s.
But if people believes so widely on chem trails and vaccine hoaxes, what would you expect with a well packaged marketing move, arranged as a high technical breakthrough?
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@tk
Ai is just a word that many people can define many ways. It's short, recognizable and everyone knows what it means. Today we use it to describe llms, yesterday we used it for video game opponents and Roomba robots, tomorrow who knows.
You can say that for you , you define ai differently than other people. But most people use it for llms today and not only linguistically, also technically it's a good word to use for that.
@jaystephens @Elizafox@Noisecolor @tk @Elizafox
Semantically and technically, I agree.
The issue is about orgs with deep pockets doing a lot of work in the media and in sales pitch slide decks to the C-suite, to conflate hypothetical AGI, LLMs as they currently exist, and claimed but not delivered LLM abilities, under the loose term AI. -
LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox The illusion of AGI is necessary to make the chatbot parlour trick work, so they have to push it.
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@Elizafox
Fingers X'd the aftermath will be less destructive than previous "AI" backlashes@jaystephens @Elizafox unfortunately I suspect that it'll be worse than previous AI Winters. There have been many orders of magnitude more money sunk into it and the exposure is way wider. Previous Winters have been "US Military discovers that it won't be able to replace interpreters and stops funding it", this is so much bigger.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox Took me less than six weeks to figure that out doing early versions of this work. I cannot, for the life of me, figure out how the _fuck_ people think this gets them there. I really can't.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
Generative "AI" still can't generate "full glass of red wine" and it never will, because there aren't enough pictures to train it on. (because common picture is half of glass of wine)
It can never produce anything that didn't get as input.We won't get AGI from that for sure.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
-
LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox As @pluralistic said, hoping AGI will arise out of an LLM is like hoping you will get a locomotive by breeding horses.
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@Elizafox
"generative" ai is also not generative, it cant come up with things on its own, it has to take them from other sources (ex. an ai generated movie trailer i remember watching recreated exactly several memes, like the one where leonardo dicaprio is raising a martini glass) -
on the financesBut if the marketing statements only border on fraud, it's because the "truth in advertising" laws are too weak.
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@jaystephens @Elizafox unfortunately I suspect that it'll be worse than previous AI Winters. There have been many orders of magnitude more money sunk into it and the exposure is way wider. Previous Winters have been "US Military discovers that it won't be able to replace interpreters and stops funding it", this is so much bigger.
#unpopularopinion
I also think it's possible that by sheer force of money, power, oligopoly & will, the current BS will make itself the substrate for a bunch of tech for a generation or two, making the current Microsoft/Apple/Meta era of enshittified mainstream and corporate tech look like a comparatively golden age.
