so #russia strikes #romania
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before i get into it, i should note:
if you click the article above, the title is "Russia accused of launching drone that hit apartment block in Romania, but Putin demands proof"
so russia didn't do it?
but then:
"Russian official warns Europe to brace for more drone incidents after Romania episode"
so just some classic abuser gaslighting shit
"i didn't hit you. but i'll hit you again if you say so"
2/x
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before i get into it, i should note:
if you click the article above, the title is "Russia accused of launching drone that hit apartment block in Romania, but Putin demands proof"
so russia didn't do it?
but then:
"Russian official warns Europe to brace for more drone incidents after Romania episode"
so just some classic abuser gaslighting shit
"i didn't hit you. but i'll hit you again if you say so"
2/x
anyways, on escalation:
there's a classic effect, in any society, in any time, where when the country is under attack, the citizens rally around the leader
even if many people see through the charade, it doesn't matter. enough in society don't see it, and enough propaganda is put on full blast, it changes the political and social costs of mass mobilization, or continuing a losing war, or propping up faith in a dying economy, etc
3/x
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anyways, on escalation:
there's a classic effect, in any society, in any time, where when the country is under attack, the citizens rally around the leader
even if many people see through the charade, it doesn't matter. enough in society don't see it, and enough propaganda is put on full blast, it changes the political and social costs of mass mobilization, or continuing a losing war, or propping up faith in a dying economy, etc
3/x
even if the attack is manufactured, provoked, by the leader of your own society, it doesn't matter (as long as the provocation is shadowy, such as "we lost our drone in romania, so sorry"). even if the attack isn't real, but just anticipation and fear fed through propaganda, it doesn't matter
but, as i said, putin still will not win. and so?
4/x
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even if the attack is manufactured, provoked, by the leader of your own society, it doesn't matter (as long as the provocation is shadowy, such as "we lost our drone in romania, so sorry"). even if the attack isn't real, but just anticipation and fear fed through propaganda, it doesn't matter
but, as i said, putin still will not win. and so?
4/x
because the goal for putin is not winning in ukraine so much as it is keeping himself in power, now. he will drag this stupid war out for the rest of his natural life if he has to. he will sacrifice millions of russian lives, nevermind ukrainian lives, if he has to. he doesn't care. it's all to forestall his inevitable fate. as soon as the ukraine war is over, he's toast. he knows it
5/x
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because the goal for putin is not winning in ukraine so much as it is keeping himself in power, now. he will drag this stupid war out for the rest of his natural life if he has to. he will sacrifice millions of russian lives, nevermind ukrainian lives, if he has to. he doesn't care. it's all to forestall his inevitable fate. as soon as the ukraine war is over, he's toast. he knows it
5/x
and so he *wants* a fight with NATO. a ladder of chaos to save his vile ass: he will endlessly escalate in (im)plausibly deniable ways, forever. anything NATO does in response is something to sell to the average russian- "see? NATO always wanted this! we must defend russia" as a distraction from the reality that the war is stupid and putin is the real problem and the real culprit
6/x
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and so he *wants* a fight with NATO. a ladder of chaos to save his vile ass: he will endlessly escalate in (im)plausibly deniable ways, forever. anything NATO does in response is something to sell to the average russian- "see? NATO always wanted this! we must defend russia" as a distraction from the reality that the war is stupid and putin is the real problem and the real culprit
6/x
escalation make sense for no one. except putin. the root of the entire tragedy
and there is an unfortunate political knock-on effect for romania, moldova, and europe at large, that also works for putin
7/x
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J jwcph@helvede.net shared this topic
