you can't deny how useful they are!!
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you can't deny how useful they are!!
@jplebreton I think the GenAI hype is a cancerous pit.
However.
The criticism of this graph rests on the same logic that produced GenAI: that only hyperadoption and market share growth matter.
A claim made by GenAI is for more custom software to be adopted, which naturally has lower user rates on average.
Whether or not that's happening can't be decided by the currently available information, I think?
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you can't deny how useful they are!!
@jplebreton Unfortunately contrary to what I thought, this does imly that LLMs boost programming productivity. That that productivity is spend on garbage (borderline spam) is a separate concern
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you can't deny how useful they are!!
@jplebreton Most software ideas are not useful. Working very hard on an idea for a longer period of time is like vetting that idea. Now all dumb ideas can get some form of implementation.
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@jplebreton Unfortunately contrary to what I thought, this does imly that LLMs boost programming productivity. That that productivity is spend on garbage (borderline spam) is a separate concern
It's not impossible that it's helpful for some part of the process. Even conceding that, all the graph seems to show is a x1.8 not a x10. Which is not nothing, but not revolutionary.
The relative fall in apps with significant usage suggests usage is being spread out over a wider area but no significant new scope of usefulness has been discovered. Even if we get to x10 development, there aren't x10 use cases to apply it to and x10 income to attract.
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It's not impossible that it's helpful for some part of the process. Even conceding that, all the graph seems to show is a x1.8 not a x10. Which is not nothing, but not revolutionary.
The relative fall in apps with significant usage suggests usage is being spread out over a wider area but no significant new scope of usefulness has been discovered. Even if we get to x10 development, there aren't x10 use cases to apply it to and x10 income to attract.
@petealexharris @morj_lecteur This graph shows the relative change, so the actual app volume chart would be a pretty fast exponential curve. Aside from that, I agree with your analysis. -
@petealexharris @morj_lecteur This graph shows the relative change, so the actual app volume chart would be a pretty fast exponential curve. Aside from that, I agree with your analysis.
Yeah the volume of apps would be going up faster than linear, since it's already a graph of rate. I feel like rate is the relevant measure since, per project, the absolute number of other apps that exist doesn't matter for how much easier it is to write one now.
The rate at which apps are being produced per month only seems to have gone up by x1.8. It might go higher, it might stabilise, it might fall again. I don't think it'll reach x10 any time soon.
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you can't deny how useful they are!!
@jplebreton I didn’t read yet but wonder if there’s a carbon footprint cost estimate to this flood of garbage (also I’d like to see how many exist only for demanding a monthly subscription).
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@jplebreton Unfortunately contrary to what I thought, this does imly that LLMs boost programming productivity. That that productivity is spend on garbage (borderline spam) is a separate concern
@morj_lecteur @jplebreton imo, it only implies that LLMs boost programming output of garbage apps. The corresponding decrease in apps with significant usage could indicate users bouncing around from app to app, not finding anything better to settle on, but still displaced from long-time favorite apps as the whole software ecosystem loses stability to LLM cruft
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you can't deny how useful they are!!
@jplebreton why buy the milk when the cow is free (for now)
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@jplebreton I dislike AI as much as the next person on Mastodon, but this graph shows absolutely nothing. The increased velocity in releases and the drop in reviews both began well before the "Agentic AI" region. Plus, even if you claim they're still related, correlation is not causation.
There are a million reasons to avoid AI but this isn't one of them.
@IngloGamesDev @jplebreton it does indicate that app engagement is getting lower. So AI can't be the all magical wonder tool that it's hyped to be, or it'd offset this downward trend. AI is at best... Meh.
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@jplebreton Unfortunately contrary to what I thought, this does imly that LLMs boost programming productivity. That that productivity is spend on garbage (borderline spam) is a separate concern
@morj_lecteur @jplebreton the same way a laxative boosts digestive productivity
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you can't deny how useful they are!!
@jplebreton Log scale, please!
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@jplebreton Log scale, please!
@dichotomiker It kind of already is since it's a graph of rates. -
@IngloGamesDev it's hard to prove that something isn't happening, and this is certainly well shy of what would be needed to "prove"
@jplebreton @IngloGamesDev perhaps the app store checks have become more leniant
that would be an easy way to get these results -
you can't deny how useful they are!!
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@bri7 @oatmeal @jplebreton "Individual personal carbon footprint" is oil company propaganda - and that dismissal doesn't really apply here.
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you can't deny how useful they are!!
@jplebreton When I try to look project that claims to earn real money on vibe coding reddits, it's always shitty tools to help people to vibe code and sell an app / SAAS in a way or another.
I think it's really funny those are models for vibe coders thinking they are getting rich.
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@dichotomiker It kind of already is since it's a graph of rates.
@hypolite Good point. But the count of apps with significant usage (across all apps) is a different scale.
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@hypolite Good point. But the count of apps with significant usage (across all apps) is a different scale.
@dichotomiker Good catch as well! -
@dichotomiker Good catch as well!
@hypolite I let Claude make a redo. (what happened 2024?)
