LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI.
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@Elizafox
Fingers X'd the aftermath will be less destructive than previous "AI" backlashes@jaystephens @Elizafox unfortunately I suspect that it'll be worse than previous AI Winters. There have been many orders of magnitude more money sunk into it and the exposure is way wider. Previous Winters have been "US Military discovers that it won't be able to replace interpreters and stops funding it", this is so much bigger.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox Took me less than six weeks to figure that out doing early versions of this work. I cannot, for the life of me, figure out how the _fuck_ people think this gets them there. I really can't.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
Generative "AI" still can't generate "full glass of red wine" and it never will, because there aren't enough pictures to train it on. (because common picture is half of glass of wine)
It can never produce anything that didn't get as input.We won't get AGI from that for sure.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox As @pluralistic said, hoping AGI will arise out of an LLM is like hoping you will get a locomotive by breeding horses.
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@Elizafox
"generative" ai is also not generative, it cant come up with things on its own, it has to take them from other sources (ex. an ai generated movie trailer i remember watching recreated exactly several memes, like the one where leonardo dicaprio is raising a martini glass) -
on the financesBut if the marketing statements only border on fraud, it's because the "truth in advertising" laws are too weak.
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@jaystephens @Elizafox unfortunately I suspect that it'll be worse than previous AI Winters. There have been many orders of magnitude more money sunk into it and the exposure is way wider. Previous Winters have been "US Military discovers that it won't be able to replace interpreters and stops funding it", this is so much bigger.
#unpopularopinion
I also think it's possible that by sheer force of money, power, oligopoly & will, the current BS will make itself the substrate for a bunch of tech for a generation or two, making the current Microsoft/Apple/Meta era of enshittified mainstream and corporate tech look like a comparatively golden age. -
LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox Shifting the definition of AGI seems to be the business model OpenAI as per Sam Altman
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox
OpenAI's money depends on them building AGI.. As their tech can't actually do it they have to do the next best thing, just claim that it is.
sigh. -
LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
> wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
The same way the Germans said "We knew nothing about that". It preserves their innocence and pretends they weren't a mark too.
The idea that historians will be confused about how so many people are swindled is a weird thing to me; they'd be really bad historians if they don't understand human nature and societal motivations. Then again, maybe it's the same thing as economists now that ignore any motivation beyond money.
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LLMs cannot, by their very nature, lead to AGI. They very badly need people to believe it is AGI though, because their growth model does not work without it.
(This excludes the financials, which are just straight-up fraud on wheels)
I would say these claims now border on fraud. It will be fascinating in 20 years when we are looking back on this bubble and wondering how so many smart people were so easily swindled.
AGI / ASI can't happen without an entirely new paradigm. This ain't it chief.
@Elizafox
AGI is a misnomer. It's really a way of saying "intelligent AI", but the I in AI already stands for intelligence, so calling ig IAI would expose the swindle.Current "AI" is not intelligent. It's artificial, yes, but so is microplastics.
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