I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers.
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@kento I will also confess I may be calling this out too early. The AI coding mania really took off less than a year ago. But the stories need to start showing up at some point, with real numbers from real players.
@maxleibman @kento no think you're right. I think it's about 9-10 months since "omg coding agents are actually good now" so it's fair to start asking where all the success stories are. Especially since AI is supposed to make coding so much faster... If you can ship a hand-written app in a year then, given the claims being made, I'd expect a huge influx of successful new apps and features would already exist.
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I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
@maxleibman Two days ago, I posted that I can now achieve this 10x speed. Might contain sarcasm.
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I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
I'm an ex-Alpha geek computer pioneer with my brain turning to mush.
I have a sign by my egress door "Put on pants"The gif below is some screens stitched together from my Ai harness engine. It took me 2 years to put together a PHP content manager (like WP, but way shittier)...
...this harness would take me something like 4 years to put together. I made it in 2 months (of interactive, non contiguous progress) this is V4.
Oh its also in Python, a language I have 0% familiarity with.You DEFINITELY get the x10
You ask, where is the proof?
The proof is in the recruitment ads, all the geeks are bitching how few jobs there are. -
@maxleibman I've never known engineering output to scale linearly with profit? Outside tiny startups.
At the small side, I expect we'll see a rise in very niche companies that previously may not have been feasible. Those with larger markets will ship faster and probably grow faster than in the past.
The big companies, are already big. eg I can't see AWS S3 suddenly going 10x, they already have the features and now it's mostly adoption and efficiency. Which takes the form of MS/Goog layoffs.
Funny enough, in the middle-tier, I've heard some are actually experiencing some margin erosion because features are suddenly a weak moat...
GPT2.0 was "too dangerous to release" over 7 years ago. How many more years before anyone can actually give more than 1.5 questionable examples of those niche small startups that would otherwise not exist?
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I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
@maxleibman My (limited but trustworthy AFAIC) sources say it does increase but nowhere near that. In fact there seems to be a divide precisely between a single programmer's own perception (say "I'm doubling") and how that translates to org results e. g. what the financial dept accounts for ("It's a +20%, tops")
As a new, ongoing process, it may take time for the dust to settle and let us have a clear view of the whole thing.
What they agree on is that there's no going back on the field -
I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
@maxleibman FWICS, it's mostly replaced "dig around on Google and StackExchange then cut-and-paste" as a primary source, which I suppose could be faster, but not really 10x.
I'd also expect it to acquire more hidden tech debt through lack of understanding (possibly quite a bit more than cut/paste code), so that 10x would reduce in time.
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I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
@maxleibman
Hey, 10x more LOC and the Excel folks are happy.A boss in a company I used to work at said: "Programmers are, in fact, just PowerPoint-to-code converters". This was some 15 years ago.
Managers. They never change.
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I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
@maxleibman As a software developer who uses it, it doesn't make you 10x more productive, it just trivializes the code writing part.
However, with few exceptions, writing the code wasn't the hard part, it was building something clean, secure, accessible and user friendly that was the hard part and still is.
It turns out interfacing with the various other departments in a company still takes the same amount of time as it always did.
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I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
@maxleibman I had to use 4GL tools in the late '80s and I was developing software 10 times faster. In the late noughties I worked with PC Soft's crappy, sexist, French Win- and WebDev and I was developing 10 times faster. That means that now, with AI, I can develop at least 1000x faster than I did at the start of my career, right? RighT?? *sob* RIGHT!!?!?!?!??!
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I keep seeing claims that AI has 10Xed the productivity of software engineers. I’ve seen them here, this week, in fact.
Here’s my question: where’s the software company that has 10Xed their profits using AI?
If these kinds of gains were in reach, why hasn’t Microsoft or Google done it?
@maxleibman if it's like anything I've seen, companies choose a POC project that's well suited to an AI test - maybe looking at a non-critical legacy codebase. Set the deliverables in a well structured way, assign senior engineers and put a bunch of specialist support around the project (which doesn't get counted in the productivity equation).
Then voilà - max gains! Not repeatable of course but execs get an AI announcement and an AI company gets to claim 10x productivity -
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