So, here's my defense plan for Canada.
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@Tabby_Schaf well, I guess if there were a war going on on the Canadian border, you'd have to go to Mexico instead, and then fly from there.
It feels extreme to ask Canadians not to defend themselves from an invasion, so there's a convenient exit path for American emigrants? Am I misunderstanding the question?
@evan yes you misunderstood and eventually me too misunderstood: I thought you spoke of closing the border right now. In the moment of invasion you have to do.
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@Andres4NY @evan after invasion you have to close the border of course, this would be the frontline. But just now?
@Tabby_Schaf @Andres4NY Right. In this case, the US government gives confirmation that it intends to invade. That's when the border would be closed. So Canada could prepare to stop the invasion.
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@evan yes you misunderstood and eventually me too misunderstood: I thought you spoke of closing the border right now. In the moment of invasion you have to do.
@Tabby_Schaf also, in doing a little research, there are usually humanitarian corridors maintained for refugees and asylum seekers, sometimes maintained by international organizations. Apparently, even some political dissidents and other Russian refugees did go across the battle line into Ukraine!
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So, here's my defense plan for Canada. Basic philosophy: it is unsafe to wait for an attack.
1. Secure public confirmation from NATO that Article 5 applies even if the aggressor is also a NATO member.
2. Send an ultimatum to Washington demanding a public acknowledgement of Canadian sovereignty by the President and confirmation of non-aggression.
3. In the absence of that acknowledgement, sever diplomatic ties, close the borders, and embargo trade. Blow bridges, tear up roads and rail lines.4. Join forces with Denmark
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4. Evacuate Canadian civilians from the border area; probably 300km or more. Yes, this is where most Canadians live.
5. Declare a security corridor of 300km on the other side of the border, in US territory. Any military activity in that area is a sign of imminent aggression and will prompt a defensive strike.
6. If anything occurs, surge forward and take territory. Keep any war on US soil, not in Canada.@evan Where do we send 20 million people though? The suffering caused by that kind of an evacuation would be unimaginable as we don't have the infrastructure to handle that many - even one percent of that.
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4. Evacuate Canadian civilians from the border area; probably 300km or more. Yes, this is where most Canadians live.
5. Declare a security corridor of 300km on the other side of the border, in US territory. Any military activity in that area is a sign of imminent aggression and will prompt a defensive strike.
6. If anything occurs, surge forward and take territory. Keep any war on US soil, not in Canada. -
@evan Where do we send 20 million people though? The suffering caused by that kind of an evacuation would be unimaginable as we don't have the infrastructure to handle that many - even one percent of that.
@WTL overseas or north. The suffering of being in easily bombarded or invaded cities would be much worse.
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4. Join forces with Denmark
@mad Denmark is part of NATO.
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4. Evacuate Canadian civilians from the border area; probably 300km or more. Yes, this is where most Canadians live.
5. Declare a security corridor of 300km on the other side of the border, in US territory. Any military activity in that area is a sign of imminent aggression and will prompt a defensive strike.
6. If anything occurs, surge forward and take territory. Keep any war on US soil, not in Canada.@evan I'm sorry, I agree we need to have a strong plan, but pre-emptively invading the United States is, frankly, insane.
Nothing will more quickly galvanize Americans to believe Trump's lies about how we are soooo bad. Our vestigial armed forces are in no position to make such an effort. Salients are a nightmare to defend, even if forces are equal.
We would be carpet bombed to oblivion.
Abandoning cities just gives them free real estate. Lower home prices
!And nobody is going to help us.
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@evan number 4. Remove a couple of zeroes otherwise you'd have to evacuate Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, and a whole lot of suburbs.
@Milnoc yes, that is entirely the point. The majority of the Canadian population is far too close to the border. We have to evacuate or we'll be entirely occupied within hours.
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So, here's my defense plan for Canada. Basic philosophy: it is unsafe to wait for an attack.
1. Secure public confirmation from NATO that Article 5 applies even if the aggressor is also a NATO member.
2. Send an ultimatum to Washington demanding a public acknowledgement of Canadian sovereignty by the President and confirmation of non-aggression.
3. In the absence of that acknowledgement, sever diplomatic ties, close the borders, and embargo trade. Blow bridges, tear up roads and rail lines.@evan 1 and 2 are good for political pressure. But don’t blow up bridges and close the border because we’ll need that.
Geography and force discrepancy mean that regular forms of military resistance are bound to fail.
We should instead take advantage of these facts:
1- We have a huge border
2- 80% of Canadians look and talk like Americans.
3- The American people are extremely divided, even more so when it comes to invading us.
4- The US Army couldn’t handle insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. -
@evan I'm sorry, I agree we need to have a strong plan, but pre-emptively invading the United States is, frankly, insane.
Nothing will more quickly galvanize Americans to believe Trump's lies about how we are soooo bad. Our vestigial armed forces are in no position to make such an effort. Salients are a nightmare to defend, even if forces are equal.
We would be carpet bombed to oblivion.
Abandoning cities just gives them free real estate. Lower home prices!And nobody is going to help us.
@AlexanderVI I think you might need to read through it again. In this case, the US has expressed its intention to attack and is moving troops into position within reach of the border.
Letting those troops get into position and cross our border before taking any action would be insane. Especially with 2/3 of the population only an hour from the border.
And don't worry about real estate! It will be much less valuable when it's been pounded into rubble by American bombers and missiles.
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@AlexanderVI I think you might need to read through it again. In this case, the US has expressed its intention to attack and is moving troops into position within reach of the border.
Letting those troops get into position and cross our border before taking any action would be insane. Especially with 2/3 of the population only an hour from the border.
And don't worry about real estate! It will be much less valuable when it's been pounded into rubble by American bombers and missiles.
@AlexanderVI but I'd love to hear your defense plan. How would you protect Canadian sovereignty in the event of an American invasion?
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@AlexanderVI but I'd love to hear your defense plan. How would you protect Canadian sovereignty in the event of an American invasion?
@evan At present, if there's a full scale invasion, no such thing is possible. This is the most powerful military in all human history we are talking about.
To be clear, yes, a troublesome insurgency that adds to the domestic American polycrisis such that continuing is impossible is likely our only hope. But we should not be unrealistic. Vietnam went on for ages.
And moving millions of people hundreds of kilometres is simply not feasible and would pretty much immediately end our economy.
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@evan At present, if there's a full scale invasion, no such thing is possible. This is the most powerful military in all human history we are talking about.
To be clear, yes, a troublesome insurgency that adds to the domestic American polycrisis such that continuing is impossible is likely our only hope. But we should not be unrealistic. Vietnam went on for ages.
And moving millions of people hundreds of kilometres is simply not feasible and would pretty much immediately end our economy.
@AlexanderVI so, because resistance would be hard, accept an occupation and lose any advantages whatsoever, and hope guerrilla actions nudge towards collapse of the empire?
Hand in the guns and fight with sticks?
That's just defeatism.
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@evan 1 and 2 are good for political pressure. But don’t blow up bridges and close the border because we’ll need that.
Geography and force discrepancy mean that regular forms of military resistance are bound to fail.
We should instead take advantage of these facts:
1- We have a huge border
2- 80% of Canadians look and talk like Americans.
3- The American people are extremely divided, even more so when it comes to invading us.
4- The US Army couldn’t handle insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan.@nantel yes, supporting insurgencies in the US would be a good idea. But partisan tactics on Canadian land is a last resort, not a primary plan.
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@AlexanderVI so, because resistance would be hard, accept an occupation and lose any advantages whatsoever, and hope guerrilla actions nudge towards collapse of the empire?
Hand in the guns and fight with sticks?
That's just defeatism.
@evan no, I am not saying that.
I'm specifically saying the invasion piece is not a good idea, in my opinion. Many other aspects of your plan are sound goals, and I sincerely hope we can avoid the worst. I agree we need to maximize friction.I'm taking a Scouting approach: Be Prepared. We need civil defence organization and emergency preparedness efforts so we can support each other. We should be massively expanding something like the Reserves, maybe even a Swiss approach.
I'm preparing.
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@evan no, I am not saying that.
I'm specifically saying the invasion piece is not a good idea, in my opinion. Many other aspects of your plan are sound goals, and I sincerely hope we can avoid the worst. I agree we need to maximize friction.I'm taking a Scouting approach: Be Prepared. We need civil defence organization and emergency preparedness efforts so we can support each other. We should be massively expanding something like the Reserves, maybe even a Swiss approach.
I'm preparing.
@evan if you sincerely believe the Canadian Forces can go toe to toe against the US military, I completely understand your reasoning.
From the numbers, and from what I have seen of the US military up close, we are going to have very different opinions on that.I am glad we are at least having frank discussions about this. I hope DND is as well.
For clarity, my family came to Canada as refugees when New York was evacuated in 1783. I have personally lived in the States. I will not do so again
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@evan no, I am not saying that.
I'm specifically saying the invasion piece is not a good idea, in my opinion. Many other aspects of your plan are sound goals, and I sincerely hope we can avoid the worst. I agree we need to maximize friction.I'm taking a Scouting approach: Be Prepared. We need civil defence organization and emergency preparedness efforts so we can support each other. We should be massively expanding something like the Reserves, maybe even a Swiss approach.
I'm preparing.
@AlexanderVI understood!
I think our only win condition is surviving long enough that the invader loses their will to continue the war and comes to the negotiating table.
I think holding US territory would be bad for US civilian morale. It would concentrate American firepower on troops in Minnesota, Idaho and Northern Maine rather than on the GTA.
It would also give us something to take to the table. Exchanging territorial gains and returning to pre-war borders would be a good outcome for us.
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@evan if you sincerely believe the Canadian Forces can go toe to toe against the US military, I completely understand your reasoning.
From the numbers, and from what I have seen of the US military up close, we are going to have very different opinions on that.I am glad we are at least having frank discussions about this. I hope DND is as well.
For clarity, my family came to Canada as refugees when New York was evacuated in 1783. I have personally lived in the States. I will not do so again
@AlexanderVI yeah, the US military is 10-15 times the size of Canada's, and the US economy is about 10-15 times bigger, too. We can't win a fair war.
