The world’s solar capacity reached 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, way beyond any predictions.
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The world’s solar capacity reached 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, way beyond any predictions. 1 gigawatt = power for a medium sized city
Soon this will need a log scale…
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@aanee @infobeautiful while I'm 100% on board with you directionally, I suppose the counter argument would be that exponential growth has to tap out eventually, is just a question of when it turns into an S-curve.
@tartley @aanee @infobeautiful It will turn into an S-curve sometime after the full electrification of Africa, South and South-East Asia and Latin America.
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@martin ??? Solar plus wind plus batteries provide power for free, reducing need for fossil fuel dependence by 80% or 100% in some places, what's not to like?
@Jonathan Hartley Nope. You need 100% backup(from about 50% of Ren share). Fossil backup.
That's why it's not cheap. and will not be. Never.
#^https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute -
@infobeautiful This might explain why I'm reading about prices of PV electricity sold to the grid plummeting (as there is barely any storage capacity).
@dzwiedziu @infobeautiful storage capacity is artifically restrained. We have the tech to store electricity cheap and with a one-time low investment and minimal maintenance sosts, we have the millenia old tech to store heat, yet more and more legislatures are -lobbied- bribed to make cheap perpetual solutions illegal.
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@dzwiedziu @infobeautiful storage capacity is artifically restrained. We have the tech to store electricity cheap and with a one-time low investment and minimal maintenance sosts, we have the millenia old tech to store heat, yet more and more legislatures are -lobbied- bribed to make cheap perpetual solutions illegal.
@ohir
[citation needed] -
@ohir
[citation needed]@dzwiedziu @infobeautiful are you asking about "lobbying" efforts (this would be R 2023/1542 and Digital Battery Passport kicking in next year). The whole regulations only skim non-patentable technologies, like lead-acid batteries. These can be operational for millenia, due to their simple chemistry. The only maintenance that must be done is on-site processing of sulfated battery plates. Something that once upon a time (1950-1990) was being done on the massive scale in Central/East Europe countries. Then lobbied country's legislative can bar mid-sized installations as unable to met the EU demands (tried recently in Poland afair).
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The world’s solar capacity reached 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, way beyond any predictions. 1 gigawatt = power for a medium sized city
@infobeautiful The opposite of
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@aanee @infobeautiful while I'm 100% on board with you directionally, I suppose the counter argument would be that exponential growth has to tap out eventually, is just a question of when it turns into an S-curve.
@tartley @aanee @infobeautiful Well, what would be a limitting factors that would make it more expensive/more difficult to keep expanding solar?
=> running out of physical space to build panels on:
Yes but this isn't happening anytime soon and we would have beaten current world energy production well before that point is reached=> running out or raw materials:
Plenty of time until then too, and recycling older panels could help too. -
The world’s solar capacity reached 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, way beyond any predictions. 1 gigawatt = power for a medium sized city
war and conflict is unfortunately a likely major contributor to this, though I'm glad the shift is happening
just look at what happened to Cuba lately, without fuel the society goes to a standstill, they desperately need more green tech and everyone will know that unless they also make the shift, the unpredictability of fossil fuel politics may hit them hard at some point, adding to all the other existing arguments to shift
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@aanee @infobeautiful while I'm 100% on board with you directionally, I suppose the counter argument would be that exponential growth has to tap out eventually, is just a question of when it turns into an S-curve.
@tartley The Total Addressable Market of solar panels is anywhere that can have a reasonable ROI on a solar panel given local electricity demand. As panels get cheaper they become economical in cloudier places.
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@tartley @aanee @infobeautiful Well, what would be a limitting factors that would make it more expensive/more difficult to keep expanding solar?
=> running out of physical space to build panels on:
Yes but this isn't happening anytime soon and we would have beaten current world energy production well before that point is reached=> running out or raw materials:
Plenty of time until then too, and recycling older panels could help too.@dryak @aanee @infobeautiful I totally agree. I suppose the black-pilled establishment energy industry might expect another limiting factor would be running out of loony environmentalists to sell them too, if they could only sway public opinion sufficiently. But I agree with you, they were holding back the tide.
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@Jonathan Hartley Nope. You need 100% backup(from about 50% of Ren share). Fossil backup.
That's why it's not cheap. and will not be. Never.
#^https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute@martin you might need access to 100% backup while still being able to reduce your need for fossil generated energy by a majority amount - those aren't incompatible.
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@dzwiedziu @infobeautiful are you asking about "lobbying" efforts (this would be R 2023/1542 and Digital Battery Passport kicking in next year). The whole regulations only skim non-patentable technologies, like lead-acid batteries. These can be operational for millenia, due to their simple chemistry. The only maintenance that must be done is on-site processing of sulfated battery plates. Something that once upon a time (1950-1990) was being done on the massive scale in Central/East Europe countries. Then lobbied country's legislative can bar mid-sized installations as unable to met the EU demands (tried recently in Poland afair).
@ohir
So you're saying that to solve energy and heat storage we need sites that will have large amounts of a poisonous, bio-accumulative heavy metal working in an highly hazardous acid, and all that working within daily deep-cycling, on an industrial scale, plus constant industrial-scale recycling, and that it will be cheap and safe?Yeah, no citations (not counting regulation existing alone) means I'll pass.
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The world’s solar capacity reached 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, way beyond any predictions. 1 gigawatt = power for a medium sized city
@infobeautiful More than enough to power a DeLorean back to the future
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@infobeautiful the IEA is famous for denying what cannot be denied until the very last minute.
@infobeautiful the IEA is traditionally very nuclear friendly and of course aware that solar and wind are pushing nuclear from „expensive but with enough subsidies and imperialism it might work“ into „are you ducking nuts?!?“ territory
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@martin you might need access to 100% backup while still being able to reduce your need for fossil generated energy by a majority amount - those aren't incompatible.
@Jonathan Hartley
That's true. But it will be expensive. Even with zero price for FV panels.
Or we could have a stable
️ and not have installations with 200% of the required performance, right...
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@ohir
So you're saying that to solve energy and heat storage we need sites that will have large amounts of a poisonous, bio-accumulative heavy metal working in an highly hazardous acid, and all that working within daily deep-cycling, on an industrial scale, plus constant industrial-scale recycling, and that it will be cheap and safe?Yeah, no citations (not counting regulation existing alone) means I'll pass.
@dzwiedziu @infobeautiful [...] Yes! Almost every point of anti-storage propaganda repeated (the one omitted is about hydrogen being flammable).
Debunking:
1. All components of lead-acid batteries are curently _byproducts_ of other indispensable industries. Lead itself accompanies copper ores. Sulfur is a byproduct of natural gas/oil. Whether either "waste" byproduct ends up in landfills or in batteries matters.
2. Battery plates can be renovated on-site using very simple machines. 50yrs ago operated by humans, now can be entirely autonomous. Very small storages (house) can be renovated by mobile semi-van mounted machine.
3. "Highly hazardous" acid somehow is not that hazardous if used in the car battery. Nor it was when used in warehouse lifters since 1890. -
@ohir
So you're saying that to solve energy and heat storage we need sites that will have large amounts of a poisonous, bio-accumulative heavy metal working in an highly hazardous acid, and all that working within daily deep-cycling, on an industrial scale, plus constant industrial-scale recycling, and that it will be cheap and safe?Yeah, no citations (not counting regulation existing alone) means I'll pass.
As for the heat storage: mid-temperature heat accumulator can store around 1MWh per 1 cubic meter of gravel. Insulated by the very same gravel turned into the mineral wool. My house heat accu (I can not build on my own land) is designed to the tune of 7MWh, co it could store heat from 30kW solar installation operating from March to September. This fits into the 6m diameter rotunde. In 2020 was expected to cost around €15000. 4/5 of that the insulation. In non-lobbied regulatory environment this insulation could be made on-site from the gravel (and some amount of aluminium) by simple machine known for two centuries now.
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@infobeautiful why were people predicting a /downslope/ for so long, seems like a bizarre forecast. “Oh, solar rates have been climbing modestly for the last few years but I’m sure it’s just a passing fad…”
@bitprophet @infobeautiful there is a whole book by @solar_chase from bloombergNEF on the subject.
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The world’s solar capacity reached 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, way beyond any predictions. 1 gigawatt = power for a medium sized city
It’s almost like there’s an entrenched, wealthy, and powerful special interest group with a vested interest in discouraging investments in solar …
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