Time for 2026 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread, now with storage.
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30. The rest of us, if we want to be less dependent on China for solar modules, should buy from southeast Asia, India or Turkey, which will be happy to sell them at much less cost than setting up a domestic industry.
31. The US whack-a-mole approach to tariffs on new solar supply countries has resulted in cell and module factories built in a hurry in Africa, almost on a temporary basis because everyone knows the tariffs will hit them next.
This is not good for developing a skilled workforce or rigorous quality control.
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31. The US whack-a-mole approach to tariffs on new solar supply countries has resulted in cell and module factories built in a hurry in Africa, almost on a temporary basis because everyone knows the tariffs will hit them next.
This is not good for developing a skilled workforce or rigorous quality control.
32. A few interesting bellwether markets! Bulgaria, with 2025 peak power demand of 7.4GW, already has 4GW of batteries and a further 2-4GW in the pipeline, for 16GWh total. It is well connected with neighbouring grids and may become a short-term balancing hub.
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32. A few interesting bellwether markets! Bulgaria, with 2025 peak power demand of 7.4GW, already has 4GW of batteries and a further 2-4GW in the pipeline, for 16GWh total. It is well connected with neighbouring grids and may become a short-term balancing hub.
33. Pakistan: ~25% of generation comes from solar, mostly small user-owned systems. It has grown due to rising power prices, distrust of utilities, landlords who see the benefits and provide PV to tenants as patronage, and really good how-to Tiktoks in local languages.
This has stabilised and even reduced demand for gas and grid power, which puts new stresses on utilities and the government, which is responsible for capacity payments to China-owned coal plants. I do not know what happens next.
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33. Pakistan: ~25% of generation comes from solar, mostly small user-owned systems. It has grown due to rising power prices, distrust of utilities, landlords who see the benefits and provide PV to tenants as patronage, and really good how-to Tiktoks in local languages.
This has stabilised and even reduced demand for gas and grid power, which puts new stresses on utilities and the government, which is responsible for capacity payments to China-owned coal plants. I do not know what happens next.
34. Demand for solar panels to sub-Saharan Africa is rising; it was the destination for 9.4 gigawatts (GW) of Chinese module exports in the first half of 2026, compared with 13.1GW in the whole of 2025. South Africa, Nigeria, Congo, Ghana and Kenya are the largest markets.
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34. Demand for solar panels to sub-Saharan Africa is rising; it was the destination for 9.4 gigawatts (GW) of Chinese module exports in the first half of 2026, compared with 13.1GW in the whole of 2025. South Africa, Nigeria, Congo, Ghana and Kenya are the largest markets.
35. The Philippines is having an amazing boom – we estimate that it will build 5.6GW of new solar in 2026, compared with 1GW last year. Plus 2.7GWh of batteries in 2026. Maybe the first market where the solar boom comes with batteries from the start.
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35. The Philippines is having an amazing boom – we estimate that it will build 5.6GW of new solar in 2026, compared with 1GW last year. Plus 2.7GWh of batteries in 2026. Maybe the first market where the solar boom comes with batteries from the start.
36. Solar long ago stopped being only for rich countries, and now batteries are the same.
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36. Solar long ago stopped being only for rich countries, and now batteries are the same.
37. Nonetheless, it will be very difficult to reach net zero emissions, and getting rid of the last 10% of fossil fuel will be the hardest. Gas turbine orders hit a record 67GW worldwide in 1H 2026 (paywall).
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37. Nonetheless, it will be very difficult to reach net zero emissions, and getting rid of the last 10% of fossil fuel will be the hardest. Gas turbine orders hit a record 67GW worldwide in 1H 2026 (paywall).
38. Many of these turbines will run at lower capacity factors than historical gas turbines, and the best sort of fossil fuel plant is one that runs only occasionally. It is possible to have higher fossil capacity but much lower fuel burn, and indeed this makes a lot of economic sense.
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38. Many of these turbines will run at lower capacity factors than historical gas turbines, and the best sort of fossil fuel plant is one that runs only occasionally. It is possible to have higher fossil capacity but much lower fuel burn, and indeed this makes a lot of economic sense.
39. Even our Net Zero Scenario modelling, to my despair, relies a lot on carbon capture and storage from a residual fragment of gas generation. Net zero is just very hard, but working towards it is better than not working!
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39. Even our Net Zero Scenario modelling, to my despair, relies a lot on carbon capture and storage from a residual fragment of gas generation. Net zero is just very hard, but working towards it is better than not working!
40. Decarbonization offers financial savings as well as costs. Even our Economic Transition Scenario, a base case where change is driven by cost analysis and existing policy, has energy import dependence falling substantially for many countries by 2035. No paywall:
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40. Decarbonization offers financial savings as well as costs. Even our Economic Transition Scenario, a base case where change is driven by cost analysis and existing policy, has energy import dependence falling substantially for many countries by 2035. No paywall:
41. Achieving a low-carbon transition, for most countries, will not look like winning a war or marching while waving flags. It is the ability to say "no thank you, we do not want what you are selling" to the petrostates, and walking (or cycling, or taking a bus, or driving an EV) away.
(The End, for now).
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41. Achieving a low-carbon transition, for most countries, will not look like winning a war or marching while waving flags. It is the ability to say "no thank you, we do not want what you are selling" to the petrostates, and walking (or cycling, or taking a bus, or driving an EV) away.
(The End, for now).
@solar_chase I am on an electric bus as you write, with a phone charged off-grid this morning... Thanks!
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41. Achieving a low-carbon transition, for most countries, will not look like winning a war or marching while waving flags. It is the ability to say "no thank you, we do not want what you are selling" to the petrostates, and walking (or cycling, or taking a bus, or driving an EV) away.
(The End, for now).
@solar_chase Thank you. Always very much enjoy reading your annual update.
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10. We oughtta be building more wind, especially in seasonal climates like Europe. Solar will get built anyway, it’s cheap, but wind blows at night and in the winter. We’re going to need something to charge the batteries in winter, especially with rising heatpump use.
@solar_chase Only an iota of humanity Please save my life by opening the link and seeing my story. Help me with one dollar or share
https://chuffed.org/project/149031-give-waleeds-family-a-chance-to-live -
23. Balcony solar: sure, you can put solar on anything. It works at any scale. But the amounts are tiny - this is not really an alternative to building large amounts of rooftop or ground mount solar.
@solar_chase well for the user it matters a lot and often it opens the mental space for more solar later. People tend to experiment with pluginsolar, then realise it works and is fun and than buy larger systems.
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24. “But you can own your own power plant!”.
No normal person wants to own their own power plant. Apart from us weirdoes, most people want to buy affordable, reliable power from the grid and have someone else make the investment and worry about the details.
@solar_chase plus the further one gets from the equator the seasonal swings in solar production become more pronounced.
In places where winter heating is a significant contributor to one's total energy usage without residential wind and/or some kind of seasonal storage for the summer excess (small-scale sand batteries or the like) it is borderline impossible to own a "power plant" that one can trust to be appreciably useful during the winter months.
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24. “But you can own your own power plant!”.
No normal person wants to own their own power plant. Apart from us weirdoes, most people want to buy affordable, reliable power from the grid and have someone else make the investment and worry about the details.
@solar_chase I think distrust of utilities is higher than you make out. And will unfortunately tend to increase as a result of heavier weather.
Case in point: After hurricane helene left her without power or well water for a month, my mother-in-law upgraded the existing solar, installed whole house batteries, and ended up with a zero export system. She may pay more than a grid interconnect fee on her power bill come december, perhaps.
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13. Europeans shouldn't feel guilty about using electricity for airconditioning (or reversible heatpumps), it already mostly comes from the sun, especially if you pre-cool. This is good news for hot countries as well. Heat is deadly.
@solar_chase check out this
@europeanspodcast -
24. “But you can own your own power plant!”.
No normal person wants to own their own power plant. Apart from us weirdoes, most people want to buy affordable, reliable power from the grid and have someone else make the investment and worry about the details.
@solar_chase In Germany at least, I'm told that homeowners are really interested in energy "autonomy".
By which they mostly mean having enough battery capacity to bridge a few hours of grid outage, up to a couple of days at most. The interest is driven by fear of disorder and, perhaps, war - or just generally by a feeling that the state-based order is becoming less reliable.
(This is probably more relevant to a political scientist than to an energy analyst)
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41. Achieving a low-carbon transition, for most countries, will not look like winning a war or marching while waving flags. It is the ability to say "no thank you, we do not want what you are selling" to the petrostates, and walking (or cycling, or taking a bus, or driving an EV) away.
(The End, for now).
@solar_chase Thank you for the update, that was all lovely. If only we could get the F**** idiots out of power here in the US, so we could retire fossil fuels faster.
