What We Misunderstand About Pre-Industrial Craftsmanship by Vic Tesolin
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@Npars01 My prediction?
Enterprises will figure out a way to make it as small in scope and deterministic as possible to protect margins, equivalent to sprinkling salt or seasoning on an almost cooked dish.
They will figure out a way to make token usage more efficient, Tokens saved would be the new KPI
@Npars01 So for example reusing existing prompts that are tested for cost and reliability, middleware solutions that help you make your prompts precise and thinking explicit, for example a friend is making a tool that elicits designers to think of the structure (IA) of the application, so that all the thinking is done by them before hand and then it outputs a prompt
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@Npars01 Yeah I agree, what do you think is the solution forward if AI is here to stay and it becomes ubiquitous
What do you think should be that small unit of practice one can repeat daily to get better at even with AI use, that will always hold value and amplify our expertise rather than decrease it
@impactology @Npars01 Kindness to other people. Everybody needs to practice this and it is something AI will never understand.
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@impactology @Npars01 Kindness to other people. Everybody needs to practice this and it is something AI will never understand.
Agreed! GenZ especially needs to learn this, very foul mouthed they are becoming
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Agreed! GenZ especially needs to learn this, very foul mouthed they are becoming
AI has found a few niches.
1. Stock market manipulation
"Markets are full of predatory trading algorithms. They’ve evolved to hunt in packs." William Gibson
2. Election meddling
3. Automated disinformation
4. Union busting
5. Malign influence campaigns
6. Jailbreaking IP
7. Surveillance capitalism
8. Price fixing & rent fixing
9. Monopolization -
My prediction?
The fossil fuel cash funding AI will dry up.
OPEC & Russia will have laundered sufficient money through Silicon Valley.
The flight of capital will move on to something real like automated warfare or state surveillance platforms with guaranteed government contracts & a constant cash flow. It'll make AI too expensive.The data centers won't get built because the speculators will move elsewhere.
Bosses will abandon AI implementation because the ROI is too poor.
@Npars01 agree with this. Its primary use will be the imposition of surveillance and oppression, which will be much in demand as the reality of a future with less affordable energy and resources bites down on distracted polities. At some point though that falls over too as the supply chains for it become impossible to sustain.
So it is most definitely not “here to stay”, along with much of modernity
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AI has found a few niches.
1. Stock market manipulation
"Markets are full of predatory trading algorithms. They’ve evolved to hunt in packs." William Gibson
2. Election meddling
3. Automated disinformation
4. Union busting
5. Malign influence campaigns
6. Jailbreaking IP
7. Surveillance capitalism
8. Price fixing & rent fixing
9. MonopolizationFor businesses its really simple to judge its value : if it saves more money than it costs to use it, otherwise dump it
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@Npars01 agree with this. Its primary use will be the imposition of surveillance and oppression, which will be much in demand as the reality of a future with less affordable energy and resources bites down on distracted polities. At some point though that falls over too as the supply chains for it become impossible to sustain.
So it is most definitely not “here to stay”, along with much of modernity
Its here to stay as long as VCs are okay with burning their cash on it, seems like they have a lot to be okay with running on loss making AI products
https://www.a16z.news/p/we-raised-15b-why
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/anthropic-funding-term-sheet-valuation.html
They have a comfortable runway to change workplace habits, practices and hiring for the next five years.
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Its here to stay as long as VCs are okay with burning their cash on it, seems like they have a lot to be okay with running on loss making AI products
https://www.a16z.news/p/we-raised-15b-why
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/anthropic-funding-term-sheet-valuation.html
They have a comfortable runway to change workplace habits, practices and hiring for the next five years.
@impactology capital evaporated in 2008. It will do so again
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AI has found a few niches.
1. Stock market manipulation
"Markets are full of predatory trading algorithms. They’ve evolved to hunt in packs." William Gibson
2. Election meddling
3. Automated disinformation
4. Union busting
5. Malign influence campaigns
6. Jailbreaking IP
7. Surveillance capitalism
8. Price fixing & rent fixing
9. Monopolization@Npars01 @impactology Automated trading on various markets makes use of AI. I learned a bit about this when I had consulted for a major investment house on their AI tech. They told me 11% of all trades were automatic. It is very complicated to explain how it worked, but it was extremely alarming to me because there were no effective guardrails to prevent emergent escalation effects and market collapse. This was over 10 years ago so maybe it is safer, but I don’t think so.
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@impactology capital evaporated in 2008. It will do so again
@urlyman @Npars01 By then the damage will be done, people can't stop their lives and wait for that. You have to live and adapt
Already recruiters and hiring mangers are clueless on evaluating skills, its going to get even worse when they insist on evaluating AI tool use. Ones who already are senior level don't have to worry because they already have a track record and prestige, ones that are entering the field now are scrambling
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For businesses its really simple to judge its value : if it saves more money than it costs to use it, otherwise dump it
@impactology @Npars01 There are some domains where decision-making requires processing massive amounts of data and/or require decisions in fractions of a second. People cannot handle this work, they can’t even be in the loop. These are the problem domains most suited to AI-based automation. The value depends a lot on what the problem is that AI is solving. There is no question AI is delivering value well above its cost. That means it will be adopted more and more widely. No doubt in my mind.
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@urlyman @Npars01 By then the damage will be done, people can't stop their lives and wait for that. You have to live and adapt
Already recruiters and hiring mangers are clueless on evaluating skills, its going to get even worse when they insist on evaluating AI tool use. Ones who already are senior level don't have to worry because they already have a track record and prestige, ones that are entering the field now are scrambling
@impactology I’m lucky in that I don’t because I’m in my 60s. My generation and the one after me is pumping a huge river of shit on young people. I hope they find ways to stay out of its strongest currents, because submitting to them will wash them away
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@impactology @Npars01 There are some domains where decision-making requires processing massive amounts of data and/or require decisions in fractions of a second. People cannot handle this work, they can’t even be in the loop. These are the problem domains most suited to AI-based automation. The value depends a lot on what the problem is that AI is solving. There is no question AI is delivering value well above its cost. That means it will be adopted more and more widely. No doubt in my mind.
Manufacturing, logistics, aviation, food safety and finance right? For example Import-export trade compliance software for shipping?
https://mastodon.social/@impactology/115912577302179967
Or any of these domains below?
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@urlyman @Npars01 By then the damage will be done, people can't stop their lives and wait for that. You have to live and adapt
Already recruiters and hiring mangers are clueless on evaluating skills, its going to get even worse when they insist on evaluating AI tool use. Ones who already are senior level don't have to worry because they already have a track record and prestige, ones that are entering the field now are scrambling
@impactology @urlyman @Npars01 being senior holds no weight if you aren’t toeing the line
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@impactology I’m lucky in that I don’t because I’m in my 60s. My generation and the one after me is pumping a huge river of shit on young people. I hope they find ways to stay out of its strongest currents, because submitting to them will wash them away
Specifically your generation's C-suite folks and they don't even have to worry about pumping shit coz they'll get their kids prestigious internships via the side door anyway.
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@impactology @urlyman @Npars01 being senior holds no weight if you aren’t toeing the line
@fasterandworse @urlyman @Npars01
Sure but you have a referral network to vouch for you for a job opening so you can bypass the getting screened from 1000 of applicants based on shiny college logos part and get straight to the interview
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@fasterandworse @urlyman @Npars01
Sure but you have a referral network to vouch for you for a job opening so you can bypass the getting screened from 1000 of applicants based on shiny college logos part and get straight to the interview
@impactology @urlyman @Npars01 I hear you but I'm referring to the roles themselves. I admire your positive perspective but the word "adapt" is the problematic load-bearer here.
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@impactology @urlyman @Npars01 I hear you but I'm referring to the roles themselves. I admire your positive perspective but the word "adapt" is the problematic load-bearer here.
@fasterandworse @urlyman @Npars01
Ah got it, yes you're right.
Stephen you guys should sell courses, seriously all that tacit expertise on framing problems, finding errors, preventing them and fixing it. All that pre-ai needs to be preserved and taught. The books aren't cutting it because they are too template-y
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@fasterandworse @urlyman @Npars01
Ah got it, yes you're right.
Stephen you guys should sell courses, seriously all that tacit expertise on framing problems, finding errors, preventing them and fixing it. All that pre-ai needs to be preserved and taught. The books aren't cutting it because they are too template-y
@fasterandworse @urlyman @Npars01
Vitaly Friedman for example is totally killing it
https://x.com/vitalyf/status/2007729848891126098
We need you seniors to be loud and open on social media talking about solving complex problems, because currently its being dominated by AI hype bros and landing page designers
