The Bigger Picture

The event as such has no concrete consequences, other than worldwide incitement against Sanchez, Spain, migrants, and Muslims. Sanchez and Spain are seen as critics and a counter-model to right-wing governments worldwide, such as in the US, Italy, etc. The internet is filling up with apocalyptic scenarios, terrifying depictions, and scaremongering. The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, a self-confessed right-winger and supporter of the US government, compared the situation to a zombie apocalypse. AfD politicians babbled about an "attack," a "declaration of war," or "terror." Voices from and close to the Israeli government portrayed the situation as punishment for Spain. Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Meloni announced she would pause the Schengen Agreement with Spain—which, by the way, is legally impossible.

Spain currently has extremely poor relations with Israel and the USA after the Spanish government criticized Israel's genocide in Gaza and refused to participate in the US and Israeli war of aggression against Iran. These are two of the closest political partners of the Moroccan king. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon reacted on Friday with malice to the events in Ceuta, linking them to Spain constantly "preaching to Israel." As early as 2019, Yair Netanyahu, the son of the Israeli Prime Minister, called for Ceuta to be "liberated" from Spanish control. The US government is also engaging in open hostility toward Spain. "Don't even speak to them. They are hopeless. They are bad people," US President Trump said at the beginning of July. It is obvious that Israel and the USA also have an interest in trouble for Spain.

In the past, Morocco has repeatedly used migration flows to Ceuta and Melilla as political leverage against Spain. In 2021, the Spanish government had the leader of the Western Sahara independence movement, the Polisario, flown in under a false name from Algerian exile to be treated for a severe COVID-19 illness without informing Morocco. For Morocco, this was a provocation because it views the Polisario as an opponent in the Western Sahara conflict, and Algeria also regards Morocco as an enemy.

The Timing is Relevant
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visited Algeria last week for the first time in four years—Morocco's rival in the region. Spain wants to improve its relations with Algeria. This displeases several actors: not only the USA, which wants to isolate Algeria, but also the King of Morocco, who views Algeria as the main enemy of Moroccan interests. That Morocco's government may have brought the migrants to the border itself is shown by videos of vans full of people stopping near the border under the supervision of Moroccan police. Investigations by the New York Times also support this assumption; numerous participants in those reports recount being instructed by Moroccan police officers to go to the border.

The Facts:

Ceuta is not Europe. Ceuta is an enclave of Spain in North Africa, a remnant of Spanish trading outposts and colonialism. Ceuta does not belong to the Schengen Area; an uncontrolled border crossing to the European mainland is not possible.

Worldwide, right-wingers and racists are speaking of an "invasion." The representation is being artificially exploited through panic-mongering. The reality is far more sober and objective. Anyone entering Ceuta—whether legally or illegally—has not officially entered the EU. Ceuta does not belong to the Schengen Area. To get from Ceuta to the Spanish mainland independently, one needs either EU citizenship, a valid entry permit such as a valid visa, or a successfully completed asylum process. Spain and Morocco announced as early as Thursday that they would return all arrivals to Morocco. Returns began on Friday, and almost all refugees are already back in Morocco.
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